Recent polling from mid-August shows incumbent Sen. Ed Markey expanding his lead over Rep. Seth Moulton to 14–28 points among likely Democratic primary voters ahead of the September 1 contest, after earlier surveys had the race much closer. Markey benefits from strong support among progressives, women, liberals, and most age groups, along with higher trust on key issues and solid job approval within the Democratic electorate. Moulton’s emphasis on generational change, age concerns, and appeals to moderates and independents has not closed the gap despite multiple debates and attacks on finances and record. The September 1 primary timing leaves limited runway for further shifts, which traders appear to weigh when pricing Markey’s expected margin of victory alongside residual uncertainty reflected in other outcomes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMassachusetts Démocratique Sénat Primaire Marge de Victoire
Massachusetts Démocratique Sénat Primaire Marge de Victoire
Markey 40 %+ 43%
Markey 35–40 % 43%
Markey 30–35 % 38%
Moulton <5 % 36%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 sept. 2026
Markey 40 %+
43%
Markey 35–40 %
43%
Markey 30–35 %
38%
Markey 25–30 %
35%
Markey 20–25 %
35%
Markey 15–20 %
35%
Markey 10–15 %
35%
Markey 5–10 %
32%
Markey <5%
35%
Moulton <5 %
36%
Moulton 5 %+
10%
Markey 40 %+ 43%
Markey 35–40 % 43%
Markey 30–35 % 38%
Moulton <5 % 36%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 sept. 2026
Markey 40 %+
$16 Vol.
43%
Markey 35–40 %
$16 Vol.
43%
Markey 30–35 %
$16 Vol.
38%
Markey 25–30 %
$16 Vol.
35%
Markey 20–25 %
$16 Vol.
35%
Markey 15–20 %
$16 Vol.
35%
Markey 10–15 %
$16 Vol.
35%
Markey 5–10 %
$16 Vol.
32%
Markey <5%
$16 Vol.
35%
Moulton <5 %
$16 Vol.
36%
Moulton 5 %+
$101 Vol.
10%
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling from mid-August shows incumbent Sen. Ed Markey expanding his lead over Rep. Seth Moulton to 14–28 points among likely Democratic primary voters ahead of the September 1 contest, after earlier surveys had the race much closer. Markey benefits from strong support among progressives, women, liberals, and most age groups, along with higher trust on key issues and solid job approval within the Democratic electorate. Moulton’s emphasis on generational change, age concerns, and appeals to moderates and independents has not closed the gap despite multiple debates and attacks on finances and record. The September 1 primary timing leaves limited runway for further shifts, which traders appear to weigh when pricing Markey’s expected margin of victory alongside residual uncertainty reflected in other outcomes.
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Marché ouvert : Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 PM ET
Volume
$261Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.sec.state.ma.us/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling from mid-August shows incumbent Sen. Ed Markey expanding his lead over Rep. Seth Moulton to 14–28 points among likely Democratic primary voters ahead of the September 1 contest, after earlier surveys had the race much closer. Markey benefits from strong support among progressives, women, liberals, and most age groups, along with higher trust on key issues and solid job approval within the Democratic electorate. Moulton’s emphasis on generational change, age concerns, and appeals to moderates and independents has not closed the gap despite multiple debates and attacks on finances and record. The September 1 primary timing leaves limited runway for further shifts, which traders appear to weigh when pricing Markey’s expected margin of victory alongside residual uncertainty reflected in other outcomes.
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$261Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.sec.state.ma.us/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from mid-August shows incumbent Sen. Ed Markey expanding his lead over Rep. Seth Moulton to 14–28 points among likely Democratic primary voters ahead of the September 1 contest, after earlier surveys had the race much closer. Markey benefits from strong support among progressives, women, liberals, and most age groups, along with higher trust on key issues and solid job approval within the Democratic electorate. Moulton’s emphasis on generational change, age concerns, and appeals to moderates and independents has not closed the gap despite multiple debates and attacks on finances and record. The September 1 primary timing leaves limited runway for further shifts, which traders appear to weigh when pricing Markey’s expected margin of victory alongside residual uncertainty reflected in other outcomes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
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