Incumbent Democrat Ed Markey, fresh off defeating Rep. Seth Moulton in the September 1 primary, holds a consistent polling lead of roughly 20 points over Republican John Deaton in the Massachusetts Senate race. Statewide Democratic structural advantages, including strong performance in recent presidential and Senate contests, underpin trader expectations for a sizable victory margin concentrated in the 25-40 point range. Low Republican win probability reflects the limited path for Deaton in a state where Democrats have dominated federal elections. Factors such as midterm turnout dynamics, national political conditions, and late campaign spending could shift the final margin, though historical base rates favor a comfortable Democratic result absent major unforeseen developments.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourDémocrate 35-40 % 22%
Démocrate 30-35 % 19%
Démocrate 25-30 % 14%
Démocrate 40-45 % 14%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Victoire républicaine
1%
Démocrate 0-10%
1%
Démocrate 10-15 %
2%
Démocrate 15-20 %
3%
Démocrate 20-25 %
5%
Démocrate 25-30 %
14%
Démocrate 30-35 %
19%
Démocrate 35-40 %
22%
Démocrate 40-45 %
14%
Démocrate 45 %+
6%
Démocrate 35-40 % 22%
Démocrate 30-35 % 19%
Démocrate 25-30 % 14%
Démocrate 40-45 % 14%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Victoire républicaine
$688 Vol.
1%
Démocrate 0-10%
$414 Vol.
1%
Démocrate 10-15 %
$398 Vol.
2%
Démocrate 15-20 %
$409 Vol.
3%
Démocrate 20-25 %
$673 Vol.
5%
Démocrate 25-30 %
$1,449 Vol.
14%
Démocrate 30-35 %
$1,110 Vol.
19%
Démocrate 35-40 %
$789 Vol.
22%
Démocrate 40-45 %
$746 Vol.
14%
Démocrate 45 %+
$937 Vol.
6%
The 2026 Massachusetts Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Massachusetts Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Ed Markey, fresh off defeating Rep. Seth Moulton in the September 1 primary, holds a consistent polling lead of roughly 20 points over Republican John Deaton in the Massachusetts Senate race. Statewide Democratic structural advantages, including strong performance in recent presidential and Senate contests, underpin trader expectations for a sizable victory margin concentrated in the 25-40 point range. Low Republican win probability reflects the limited path for Deaton in a state where Democrats have dominated federal elections. Factors such as midterm turnout dynamics, national political conditions, and late campaign spending could shift the final margin, though historical base rates favor a comfortable Democratic result absent major unforeseen developments.
The 2026 Massachusetts Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Massachusetts Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Massachusetts Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Aug 4, 2026, 2:20 PM ET
Volume
$7,611Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 4, 2026, 2:20 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Massachusetts Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Massachusetts Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Ed Markey, fresh off defeating Rep. Seth Moulton in the September 1 primary, holds a consistent polling lead of roughly 20 points over Republican John Deaton in the Massachusetts Senate race. Statewide Democratic structural advantages, including strong performance in recent presidential and Senate contests, underpin trader expectations for a sizable victory margin concentrated in the 25-40 point range. Low Republican win probability reflects the limited path for Deaton in a state where Democrats have dominated federal elections. Factors such as midterm turnout dynamics, national political conditions, and late campaign spending could shift the final margin, though historical base rates favor a comfortable Democratic result absent major unforeseen developments.
The 2026 Massachusetts Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Massachusetts Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Massachusetts Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,611Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 4, 2026, 2:20 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Democrat Ed Markey, fresh off defeating Rep. Seth Moulton in the September 1 primary, holds a consistent polling lead of roughly 20 points over Republican John Deaton in the Massachusetts Senate race. Statewide Democratic structural advantages, including strong performance in recent presidential and Senate contests, underpin trader expectations for a sizable victory margin concentrated in the 25-40 point range. Low Republican win probability reflects the limited path for Deaton in a state where Democrats have dominated federal elections. Factors such as midterm turnout dynamics, national political conditions, and late campaign spending could shift the final margin, though historical base rates favor a comfortable Democratic result absent major unforeseen developments.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Le candidat du Parti démocrate remportera-t-il l’élection du gouverneur du Massachusetts en 2026 avec 25 à 30 % d’avance ?
20%
Oui
Le candidat du Parti démocrate remportera-t-il l'élection sénatoriale du New Hampshire en 2026 avec une avance de 6 à 9 % ?
25%
Oui
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MA-06 House election by 30%-35%?
28%
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