Recent polling aggregates place the Parti Conservateur du Québec (PCQ) at roughly 11–16% province-wide support ahead of the October 5 election, with particular strength in the Quebec City CMA and surrounding ridings where it often contests or leads against the PQ and CAQ. This geographic concentration supports models projecting a median of 8–14 seats, yet the range remains wide because modest shifts in francophone turnout or second preferences could swing multiple close contests. Traders price the 5–13 seat bands most heavily as the primary outcome, reflecting the party’s limited breadth outside its core areas and the absence of major campaign developments that would materially alter its trajectory before election day.