The absence of any diplomatic breakdowns, military mobilizations, or hostile rhetoric between the United States and Colombia underpins the overwhelming market consensus against a 2026 invasion. Bilateral cooperation on security, trade, and counternarcotics remains steady, with Colombia serving as a longstanding strategic partner in the Western Hemisphere and no indicators of escalation in official statements or force posture. Traders assign near-certainty to the status quo holding through the year, reflecting established foreign policy priorities elsewhere and the high institutional barriers to unilateral military action. Even so, late developments such as a sudden regime change in Bogotá, major shifts in regional alliances, or unforeseen crises involving transnational threats could theoretically alter assessments within the resolution window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
3% chance
$148,666 Vol.
$148,666 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
3% chance
$148,666 Vol.
$148,666 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The absence of any diplomatic breakdowns, military mobilizations, or hostile rhetoric between the United States and Colombia underpins the overwhelming market consensus against a 2026 invasion. Bilateral cooperation on security, trade, and counternarcotics remains steady, with Colombia serving as a longstanding strategic partner in the Western Hemisphere and no indicators of escalation in official statements or force posture. Traders assign near-certainty to the status quo holding through the year, reflecting established foreign policy priorities elsewhere and the high institutional barriers to unilateral military action. Even so, late developments such as a sudden regime change in Bogotá, major shifts in regional alliances, or unforeseen crises involving transnational threats could theoretically alter assessments within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ET
Volume
$148,666Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The absence of any diplomatic breakdowns, military mobilizations, or hostile rhetoric between the United States and Colombia underpins the overwhelming market consensus against a 2026 invasion. Bilateral cooperation on security, trade, and counternarcotics remains steady, with Colombia serving as a longstanding strategic partner in the Western Hemisphere and no indicators of escalation in official statements or force posture. Traders assign near-certainty to the status quo holding through the year, reflecting established foreign policy priorities elsewhere and the high institutional barriers to unilateral military action. Even so, late developments such as a sudden regime change in Bogotá, major shifts in regional alliances, or unforeseen crises involving transnational threats could theoretically alter assessments within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$148,666Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The absence of any diplomatic breakdowns, military mobilizations, or hostile rhetoric between the United States and Colombia underpins the overwhelming market consensus against a 2026 invasion. Bilateral cooperation on security, trade, and counternarcotics remains steady, with Colombia serving as a longstanding strategic partner in the Western Hemisphere and no indicators of escalation in official statements or force posture. Traders assign near-certainty to the status quo holding through the year, reflecting established foreign policy priorities elsewhere and the high institutional barriers to unilateral military action. Even so, late developments such as a sudden regime change in Bogotá, major shifts in regional alliances, or unforeseen crises involving transnational threats could theoretically alter assessments within the resolution window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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