Recent polling shows the Liberal–National Coalition holding a consistent two-party-preferred lead over Labor of 52-55 percent ahead of the November 28 Victorian state election, driven by sustained voter dissatisfaction with the incumbent government’s handling of cost-of-living pressures, crime, and major infrastructure cost overruns. Labor’s primary vote has remained below 26 percent following the late-July leadership transition to Premier Ben Carroll, with no measurable recovery in preferred-premier ratings. One Nation’s primary support near or above 23 percent has further fragmented the vote and complicated preference flows, while the Greens hold steady near 13 percent. Recent upper-house voting reforms eliminating group voting tickets are expected to favor larger parties like One Nation in the Legislative Council. These trends underpin the market’s strong positioning for the Coalition as the leading outcome.