Traders assign overwhelming probability to Venezuela remaining outside U.S. statehood because the country is a sovereign nation, not a territory eligible for admission under Article IV of the Constitution. Adding a new state requires an enabling act, congressional approval of a republican constitution, and typically a local referendum—steps never initiated for Venezuela. Recent public remarks by U.S. officials referencing the idea prompted immediate rejection from Venezuelan authorities, who reaffirmed territorial independence, and produced no legislative movement or diplomatic negotiations. Sustained high trader consensus reflects these procedural, legal, and geopolitical barriers. Only an unprecedented sequence of congressional action, Venezuelan consent, and resolution of existing sanctions and diplomatic disputes could reopen the possibility.