Traders assign a 95% probability against OPEC dissolving by the end of 2026 due to sustained institutional activity and coordinated production decisions among core members. In August 2026, OPEC+ countries including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman held virtual meetings to adjust output quotas by 188,000 barrels per day, completing the phased rollback of earlier voluntary cuts while reaffirming commitments to market stability. The group continues releasing monthly oil market reports and preparing its World Oil Outlook for 2026, with scheduled follow-up sessions through September. Although the UAE exited OPEC in May 2026 to pursue greater production flexibility, this individual departure has not disrupted ongoing operations or prompted broader fragmentation. These verifiable actions reflect entrenched interests in collective influence over global oil supply amid evolving demand forecasts and geopolitical pressures.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourL'OPEP se dissout en 2026 ?
L'OPEP se dissout en 2026 ?
Oui
5% chance
$32,409 Vol.
$32,409 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
5% chance
$32,409 Vol.
$32,409 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Traders assign a 95% probability against OPEC dissolving by the end of 2026 due to sustained institutional activity and coordinated production decisions among core members. In August 2026, OPEC+ countries including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman held virtual meetings to adjust output quotas by 188,000 barrels per day, completing the phased rollback of earlier voluntary cuts while reaffirming commitments to market stability. The group continues releasing monthly oil market reports and preparing its World Oil Outlook for 2026, with scheduled follow-up sessions through September. Although the UAE exited OPEC in May 2026 to pursue greater production flexibility, this individual departure has not disrupted ongoing operations or prompted broader fragmentation. These verifiable actions reflect entrenched interests in collective influence over global oil supply amid evolving demand forecasts and geopolitical pressures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volume
$32,409Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Traders assign a 95% probability against OPEC dissolving by the end of 2026 due to sustained institutional activity and coordinated production decisions among core members. In August 2026, OPEC+ countries including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman held virtual meetings to adjust output quotas by 188,000 barrels per day, completing the phased rollback of earlier voluntary cuts while reaffirming commitments to market stability. The group continues releasing monthly oil market reports and preparing its World Oil Outlook for 2026, with scheduled follow-up sessions through September. Although the UAE exited OPEC in May 2026 to pursue greater production flexibility, this individual departure has not disrupted ongoing operations or prompted broader fragmentation. These verifiable actions reflect entrenched interests in collective influence over global oil supply amid evolving demand forecasts and geopolitical pressures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$32,409Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 95% probability against OPEC dissolving by the end of 2026 due to sustained institutional activity and coordinated production decisions among core members. In August 2026, OPEC+ countries including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman held virtual meetings to adjust output quotas by 188,000 barrels per day, completing the phased rollback of earlier voluntary cuts while reaffirming commitments to market stability. The group continues releasing monthly oil market reports and preparing its World Oil Outlook for 2026, with scheduled follow-up sessions through September. Although the UAE exited OPEC in May 2026 to pursue greater production flexibility, this individual departure has not disrupted ongoing operations or prompted broader fragmentation. These verifiable actions reflect entrenched interests in collective influence over global oil supply amid evolving demand forecasts and geopolitical pressures.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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