Ground beef retail prices have already reached record levels near $6.90–$7.14 per pound in 2026, driven by the smallest U.S. beef cow herd in decades at 28.5 million head as of July, down 1% year-over-year and the lowest since 1971. Prolonged drought, elevated feed and input costs up nearly 30% since 2020, and reduced cow slaughter have tightened supplies of lean trimmings essential for ground beef, with 2026 production forecast 4% lower. Recent policy moves, including temporary tariff relief allowing 300,000 metric tons of imports, aim to ease pressure, while early signs of herd stabilization appear in a 3% rise in beef replacement heifers. Trader sentiment reflects these persistent supply constraints amid resilient demand and potential last-quarter volatility before year-end resolution.