Recent May 2026 core CPI at 2.9% year-over-year, the highest since September 2025, anchors trader expectations for the June reading amid persistent services inflation in shelter and transportation categories. Cleveland Fed nowcasts project a June core CPI YoY near 2.85%, while consensus MoM forecasts of 0.23–0.30% imply a narrow band around 2.8–3.0% once base effects are incorporated. This produces tightly clustered implied probabilities centered on 2.9–3.1%, reflecting uncertainty over whether recent moderation in goods prices and labor-market cooling will offset ongoing services pressures before the July 14 release. Market-implied odds thus embed a balanced assessment of near-term data momentum versus longer-run disinflation trends.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour3,0 % 50%
2,9 % 46%
3,1 % 46%
3,2 % 43%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
15 juil. 2026
≤2,4 %
28%
2,5 %
29%
2,6 %
28%
2,7 %
28%
2,8 %
28%
2,9 %
46%
3,0 %
50%
3,1 %
46%
3,2 %
43%
≥3,3 %
29%
3,0 % 50%
2,9 % 46%
3,1 % 46%
3,2 % 43%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
15 juil. 2026
≤2,4 %
$0 Vol.
28%
2,5 %
$0 Vol.
29%
2,6 %
$0 Vol.
28%
2,7 %
$1 Vol.
28%
2,8 %
$0 Vol.
28%
2,9 %
$0 Vol.
46%
3,0 %
$0 Vol.
50%
3,1 %
$41 Vol.
46%
3,2 %
$44 Vol.
43%
≥3,3 %
$44 Vol.
29%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending June 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent May 2026 core CPI at 2.9% year-over-year, the highest since September 2025, anchors trader expectations for the June reading amid persistent services inflation in shelter and transportation categories. Cleveland Fed nowcasts project a June core CPI YoY near 2.85%, while consensus MoM forecasts of 0.23–0.30% imply a narrow band around 2.8–3.0% once base effects are incorporated. This produces tightly clustered implied probabilities centered on 2.9–3.1%, reflecting uncertainty over whether recent moderation in goods prices and labor-market cooling will offset ongoing services pressures before the July 14 release. Market-implied odds thus embed a balanced assessment of near-term data momentum versus longer-run disinflation trends.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending June 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Marché ouvert : Jun 10, 2026, 11:41 AM ET
Volume
$130Date de fin
15 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 10, 2026, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending June 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent May 2026 core CPI at 2.9% year-over-year, the highest since September 2025, anchors trader expectations for the June reading amid persistent services inflation in shelter and transportation categories. Cleveland Fed nowcasts project a June core CPI YoY near 2.85%, while consensus MoM forecasts of 0.23–0.30% imply a narrow band around 2.8–3.0% once base effects are incorporated. This produces tightly clustered implied probabilities centered on 2.9–3.1%, reflecting uncertainty over whether recent moderation in goods prices and labor-market cooling will offset ongoing services pressures before the July 14 release. Market-implied odds thus embed a balanced assessment of near-term data momentum versus longer-run disinflation trends.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending June 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$130Date de fin
15 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 10, 2026, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent May 2026 core CPI at 2.9% year-over-year, the highest since September 2025, anchors trader expectations for the June reading amid persistent services inflation in shelter and transportation categories. Cleveland Fed nowcasts project a June core CPI YoY near 2.85%, while consensus MoM forecasts of 0.23–0.30% imply a narrow band around 2.8–3.0% once base effects are incorporated. This produces tightly clustered implied probabilities centered on 2.9–3.1%, reflecting uncertainty over whether recent moderation in goods prices and labor-market cooling will offset ongoing services pressures before the July 14 release. Market-implied odds thus embed a balanced assessment of near-term data momentum versus longer-run disinflation trends.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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