Eurozone annual inflation for 2026 has seen its market-implied odds cluster heavily around 3.1% and higher at 60.4%, driven primarily by the European Central Bank’s March upward revision of its 2026 forecast to 2.6% amid surging energy prices from the Middle East conflict. Recent Eurostat flash estimates showed headline HICP rising to 3.0% in April from 2.6% in March, with the professional forecasters survey in early May lifting its 2026 projection to 2.7% while noting limited but upside-tilted risks from indirect effects. Traders appear to be pricing in sustained energy pass-through and weaker demand dynamics that could keep the full-year average above prior baselines, even as core measures remain closer to 2.2%. Key near-term catalysts include the May full data release and any further ECB communications on monetary policy adjustments.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourInflation annuelle de la zone euro 2026
3,1 %+ 60.9%
2,8-3,0 % 22.2%
<1,0 % 12.8%
2,5–2,7 % 11.1%
$12,547 Vol.
$12,547 Vol.
<1,0 %
22%
1,0–1,2 %
4%
1,3–1,5 %
<1%
1,6–1,8 %
1%
1,9–2,1 %
2%
2,2–2,4 %
11%
2,5–2,7 %
11%
2,8-3,0 %
22%
3,1 %+
59%
3,1 %+ 60.9%
2,8-3,0 % 22.2%
<1,0 % 12.8%
2,5–2,7 % 11.1%
$12,547 Vol.
$12,547 Vol.
<1,0 %
22%
1,0–1,2 %
4%
1,3–1,5 %
<1%
1,6–1,8 %
1%
1,9–2,1 %
2%
2,2–2,4 %
11%
2,5–2,7 %
11%
2,8-3,0 %
22%
3,1 %+
59%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly Eurostat report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 19, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report on the Eurostat website (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/) by selecting the "Database" option from the "Data" dropdown, opening the "Data navigation tree" folder, then the "Economy and finance" folder, then the "Prices (prc)" folder, then the "Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) (prc_hicp)" folder, and opening the file named "HICP - monthly data (annual rate of change) (prc_hicp_manr)". The relevant figure can be found in the column for the relevant month in the row marked "Euro area - 20 countries (from 2023)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Eurostat HICP news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/release-calendar or https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/statscal/ges/html/sthicp.en.html
Marché ouvert : Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly Eurostat report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 19, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report on the Eurostat website (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/) by selecting the "Database" option from the "Data" dropdown, opening the "Data navigation tree" folder, then the "Economy and finance" folder, then the "Prices (prc)" folder, then the "Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) (prc_hicp)" folder, and opening the file named "HICP - monthly data (annual rate of change) (prc_hicp_manr)". The relevant figure can be found in the column for the relevant month in the row marked "Euro area - 20 countries (from 2023)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Eurostat HICP news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/release-calendar or https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/statscal/ges/html/sthicp.en.html
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Eurozone annual inflation for 2026 has seen its market-implied odds cluster heavily around 3.1% and higher at 60.4%, driven primarily by the European Central Bank’s March upward revision of its 2026 forecast to 2.6% amid surging energy prices from the Middle East conflict. Recent Eurostat flash estimates showed headline HICP rising to 3.0% in April from 2.6% in March, with the professional forecasters survey in early May lifting its 2026 projection to 2.7% while noting limited but upside-tilted risks from indirect effects. Traders appear to be pricing in sustained energy pass-through and weaker demand dynamics that could keep the full-year average above prior baselines, even as core measures remain closer to 2.2%. Key near-term catalysts include the May full data release and any further ECB communications on monetary policy adjustments.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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