Recent August 2026 core CPI data, showing a 1.7% YoY rise excluding fresh food—below the 1.8% consensus and the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for an eighth straight month—has reinforced trader positioning toward the ≤1.9% bracket at 70.2% implied probability. Government energy subsidies and softer processed-food price gains have offset upward pressures from Middle East oil costs and yen weakness, keeping underlying core-core inflation steady near 1.9%. While the BOJ’s July outlook anticipates a clear move above 2% in the second half of fiscal 2026 amid wage pass-through, AI-driven demand, and further policy tightening to 1.25%, persistent below-target prints and subsidy effects continue to dominate near-term sentiment for the full-year annual figure.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour≤1,9 % 70.8%
2.0-2.4% 19%
2,5-2,9 % 7.4%
3,5-3,9 % 1.2%
$45,132 Vol.
$45,132 Vol.
22 janv. 2027
≤1,9 %
71%
2.0-2.4%
19%
2,5-2,9 %
7%
3.0-3.4%
<1%
3,5-3,9 %
1%
4.0%+
1%
≤1,9 % 70.8%
2.0-2.4% 19%
2,5-2,9 % 7.4%
3,5-3,9 % 1.2%
$45,132 Vol.
$45,132 Vol.
22 janv. 2027
≤1,9 %
$22,224 Vol.
71%
2.0-2.4%
$12,196 Vol.
19%
2,5-2,9 %
$5,923 Vol.
7%
3.0-3.4%
$1,873 Vol.
<1%
3,5-3,9 %
$1,274 Vol.
1%
4.0%+
$1,642 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent August 2026 core CPI data, showing a 1.7% YoY rise excluding fresh food—below the 1.8% consensus and the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for an eighth straight month—has reinforced trader positioning toward the ≤1.9% bracket at 70.2% implied probability. Government energy subsidies and softer processed-food price gains have offset upward pressures from Middle East oil costs and yen weakness, keeping underlying core-core inflation steady near 1.9%. While the BOJ’s July outlook anticipates a clear move above 2% in the second half of fiscal 2026 amid wage pass-through, AI-driven demand, and further policy tightening to 1.25%, persistent below-target prints and subsidy effects continue to dominate near-term sentiment for the full-year annual figure.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Marché ouvert : Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volume
$45,132Date de fin
22 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent August 2026 core CPI data, showing a 1.7% YoY rise excluding fresh food—below the 1.8% consensus and the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for an eighth straight month—has reinforced trader positioning toward the ≤1.9% bracket at 70.2% implied probability. Government energy subsidies and softer processed-food price gains have offset upward pressures from Middle East oil costs and yen weakness, keeping underlying core-core inflation steady near 1.9%. While the BOJ’s July outlook anticipates a clear move above 2% in the second half of fiscal 2026 amid wage pass-through, AI-driven demand, and further policy tightening to 1.25%, persistent below-target prints and subsidy effects continue to dominate near-term sentiment for the full-year annual figure.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$45,132Date de fin
22 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent August 2026 core CPI data, showing a 1.7% YoY rise excluding fresh food—below the 1.8% consensus and the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for an eighth straight month—has reinforced trader positioning toward the ≤1.9% bracket at 70.2% implied probability. Government energy subsidies and softer processed-food price gains have offset upward pressures from Middle East oil costs and yen weakness, keeping underlying core-core inflation steady near 1.9%. While the BOJ’s July outlook anticipates a clear move above 2% in the second half of fiscal 2026 amid wage pass-through, AI-driven demand, and further policy tightening to 1.25%, persistent below-target prints and subsidy effects continue to dominate near-term sentiment for the full-year annual figure.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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