Record low winter maximum Arctic sea ice extent of 14.29 million square kilometers in March 2026, tied for the lowest in the satellite record per NSIDC data, combined with persistently near-record low spring extents through early May, has positioned the sub-4 million square kilometer minimum this September as the market favorite. Ongoing long-term decline averaging 12% per decade since 1979, driven by Arctic amplification and warmer ocean temperatures, leaves less ice to survive the melt season, while emerging El Niño conditions could further accelerate loss through altered atmospheric patterns and elevated sea surface temperatures. Traders weigh these factors against typical interannual variability in melt rates, with official NSIDC and NOAA monitoring updates through the summer peak expected to refine resolution probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourÉtendue minimale de la glace de mer arctique cet été ?
Étendue minimale de la glace de mer arctique cet été ?
<4 M km² 49%
4,0-4,2 M km² 9.8%
4,2-4,4m km² 9.0%
4,4-4,6 M km² 8.7%
$48,580 Vol.
$48,580 Vol.
1 oct. 2026
<4 M km²
49%
4,0-4,2 M km²
10%
4,2-4,4m km²
16%
4,4-4,6 M km²
9%
4,6-4,8 millions de km²
6%
4,8-5 millions de km²
2%
5M+ km²
4%
<4 M km² 49%
4,0-4,2 M km² 9.8%
4,2-4,4m km² 9.0%
4,4-4,6 M km² 8.7%
$48,580 Vol.
$48,580 Vol.
1 oct. 2026
<4 M km²
$25,113 Vol.
49%
4,0-4,2 M km²
$3,431 Vol.
10%
4,2-4,4m km²
$1,313 Vol.
16%
4,4-4,6 M km²
$1,381 Vol.
9%
4,6-4,8 millions de km²
$2,948 Vol.
6%
4,8-5 millions de km²
$1,199 Vol.
2%
5M+ km²
$13,195 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record low winter maximum Arctic sea ice extent of 14.29 million square kilometers in March 2026, tied for the lowest in the satellite record per NSIDC data, combined with persistently near-record low spring extents through early May, has positioned the sub-4 million square kilometer minimum this September as the market favorite. Ongoing long-term decline averaging 12% per decade since 1979, driven by Arctic amplification and warmer ocean temperatures, leaves less ice to survive the melt season, while emerging El Niño conditions could further accelerate loss through altered atmospheric patterns and elevated sea surface temperatures. Traders weigh these factors against typical interannual variability in melt rates, with official NSIDC and NOAA monitoring updates through the summer peak expected to refine resolution probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Marché ouvert : Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$48,580Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record low winter maximum Arctic sea ice extent of 14.29 million square kilometers in March 2026, tied for the lowest in the satellite record per NSIDC data, combined with persistently near-record low spring extents through early May, has positioned the sub-4 million square kilometer minimum this September as the market favorite. Ongoing long-term decline averaging 12% per decade since 1979, driven by Arctic amplification and warmer ocean temperatures, leaves less ice to survive the melt season, while emerging El Niño conditions could further accelerate loss through altered atmospheric patterns and elevated sea surface temperatures. Traders weigh these factors against typical interannual variability in melt rates, with official NSIDC and NOAA monitoring updates through the summer peak expected to refine resolution probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$48,580Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Record low winter maximum Arctic sea ice extent of 14.29 million square kilometers in March 2026, tied for the lowest in the satellite record per NSIDC data, combined with persistently near-record low spring extents through early May, has positioned the sub-4 million square kilometer minimum this September as the market favorite. Ongoing long-term decline averaging 12% per decade since 1979, driven by Arctic amplification and warmer ocean temperatures, leaves less ice to survive the melt season, while emerging El Niño conditions could further accelerate loss through altered atmospheric patterns and elevated sea surface temperatures. Traders weigh these factors against typical interannual variability in melt rates, with official NSIDC and NOAA monitoring updates through the summer peak expected to refine resolution probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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