**No known near-Earth objects large enough to deliver a 1-megaton airburst or impact remain on collision trajectories for 2026, according to NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and ESA monitoring.** Catalogued NEOs show zero significant impact probability this year, while recent fireball reports (including events tracked by the American Meteor Society) have stayed well below the 1 MT threshold and align with the normal flux of meter-scale bodies. Objects capable of 1 MT release are typically tens of meters across; their average terrestrial impact interval spans several decades, consistent with current observational completeness for larger potential impactors. Continuous optical and radar surveys through year-end could still reveal a small, previously undetected fragment, though statistical models place that combined risk well below the market-implied threshold.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
$110,767 Vol.
$110,767 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
$110,767 Vol.
$110,767 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No known near-Earth objects large enough to deliver a 1-megaton airburst or impact remain on collision trajectories for 2026, according to NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and ESA monitoring.** Catalogued NEOs show zero significant impact probability this year, while recent fireball reports (including events tracked by the American Meteor Society) have stayed well below the 1 MT threshold and align with the normal flux of meter-scale bodies. Objects capable of 1 MT release are typically tens of meters across; their average terrestrial impact interval spans several decades, consistent with current observational completeness for larger potential impactors. Continuous optical and radar surveys through year-end could still reveal a small, previously undetected fragment, though statistical models place that combined risk well below the market-implied threshold.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Marché ouvert : Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$110,767Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No known near-Earth objects large enough to deliver a 1-megaton airburst or impact remain on collision trajectories for 2026, according to NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and ESA monitoring.** Catalogued NEOs show zero significant impact probability this year, while recent fireball reports (including events tracked by the American Meteor Society) have stayed well below the 1 MT threshold and align with the normal flux of meter-scale bodies. Objects capable of 1 MT release are typically tens of meters across; their average terrestrial impact interval spans several decades, consistent with current observational completeness for larger potential impactors. Continuous optical and radar surveys through year-end could still reveal a small, previously undetected fragment, though statistical models place that combined risk well below the market-implied threshold.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$110,767Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No known near-Earth objects large enough to deliver a 1-megaton airburst or impact remain on collision trajectories for 2026, according to NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and ESA monitoring.** Catalogued NEOs show zero significant impact probability this year, while recent fireball reports (including events tracked by the American Meteor Society) have stayed well below the 1 MT threshold and align with the normal flux of meter-scale bodies. Objects capable of 1 MT release are typically tens of meters across; their average terrestrial impact interval spans several decades, consistent with current observational completeness for larger potential impactors. Continuous optical and radar surveys through year-end could still reveal a small, previously undetected fragment, though statistical models place that combined risk well below the market-implied threshold.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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