Trader consensus implies a 96.5% probability of no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and ESA's risk list, which detect zero credible impact threats for the year. Comprehensive surveys like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS have cataloged over 30,000 near-Earth objects (NEOs), identifying all known >140-meter potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs) years ahead, while smaller ~20-40 meter bodies capable of 1-megaton TNT-equivalent energy would trigger alerts if inbound. Recent safe flybys, such as bus-sized 2026 EG1 in March and airplane-sized objects in April, validate tracking accuracy through mid-May with no events. Realistic shifts could arise from a rare undetected small NEO discovered late via Vera C. Rubin Observatory data, though historical baselines show such oversights occur less than once per decade. Continued CNEOS updates through year-end provide key monitoring.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour1 mégatonne de météorite en 2026 ?
1 mégatonne de météorite en 2026 ?
Oui
$106,001 Vol.
$106,001 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$106,001 Vol.
$106,001 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus implies a 96.5% probability of no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and ESA's risk list, which detect zero credible impact threats for the year. Comprehensive surveys like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS have cataloged over 30,000 near-Earth objects (NEOs), identifying all known >140-meter potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs) years ahead, while smaller ~20-40 meter bodies capable of 1-megaton TNT-equivalent energy would trigger alerts if inbound. Recent safe flybys, such as bus-sized 2026 EG1 in March and airplane-sized objects in April, validate tracking accuracy through mid-May with no events. Realistic shifts could arise from a rare undetected small NEO discovered late via Vera C. Rubin Observatory data, though historical baselines show such oversights occur less than once per decade. Continued CNEOS updates through year-end provide key monitoring.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Marché ouvert : Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$106,001Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus implies a 96.5% probability of no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and ESA's risk list, which detect zero credible impact threats for the year. Comprehensive surveys like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS have cataloged over 30,000 near-Earth objects (NEOs), identifying all known >140-meter potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs) years ahead, while smaller ~20-40 meter bodies capable of 1-megaton TNT-equivalent energy would trigger alerts if inbound. Recent safe flybys, such as bus-sized 2026 EG1 in March and airplane-sized objects in April, validate tracking accuracy through mid-May with no events. Realistic shifts could arise from a rare undetected small NEO discovered late via Vera C. Rubin Observatory data, though historical baselines show such oversights occur less than once per decade. Continued CNEOS updates through year-end provide key monitoring.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$106,001Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 96.5% probability of no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and ESA's risk list, which detect zero credible impact threats for the year. Comprehensive surveys like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS have cataloged over 30,000 near-Earth objects (NEOs), identifying all known >140-meter potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs) years ahead, while smaller ~20-40 meter bodies capable of 1-megaton TNT-equivalent energy would trigger alerts if inbound. Recent safe flybys, such as bus-sized 2026 EG1 in March and airplane-sized objects in April, validate tracking accuracy through mid-May with no events. Realistic shifts could arise from a rare undetected small NEO discovered late via Vera C. Rubin Observatory data, though historical baselines show such oversights occur less than once per decade. Continued CNEOS updates through year-end provide key monitoring.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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