The latest preliminary CDC FluSurv-NET data places the cumulative laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalization rate through Week 18 (ending May 9, 2026) squarely in the 85–90 per 100,000 population range, driving trader consensus to a 98.5% implied probability for this outcome. Week 17's official cumulative rate stood at 86.0 per 100,000—the third highest since the 2010–2011 season—fueled earlier by dominant influenza A(H3N2) circulation, though weekly rates have since plunged to 0.2 per 100,000 amid low national flu activity and a shift toward influenza B detections. Forecasts from CDC's FluSight ensemble predict further declines in hospital admissions. Realistic challenges include substantial upward revisions from reporting delays or an unforeseen late-season surge, but persistent low test positivity and declining trends make shifts to adjacent bins unlikely; final confirmation arrives in Thursday's FluView update.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFlu Hospitalization Rate Week 18, 2026?
Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 18, 2026?
85–90 98.0%
90–95 1.9%
80–85 <1%
100+ <1%
$13,325 Vol.
$13,325 Vol.
15 mai 2026
<80
1%
80–85
1%
85–90
98%
90–95
2%
95–100
<1%
100+
1%
85–90 98.0%
90–95 1.9%
80–85 <1%
100+ <1%
$13,325 Vol.
$13,325 Vol.
15 mai 2026
<80
$1,606 Vol.
1%
80–85
$1,729 Vol.
1%
85–90
$5,522 Vol.
98%
90–95
$2,681 Vol.
2%
95–100
$972 Vol.
<1%
100+
$815 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.The latest preliminary CDC FluSurv-NET data places the cumulative laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalization rate through Week 18 (ending May 9, 2026) squarely in the 85–90 per 100,000 population range, driving trader consensus to a 98.5% implied probability for this outcome. Week 17's official cumulative rate stood at 86.0 per 100,000—the third highest since the 2010–2011 season—fueled earlier by dominant influenza A(H3N2) circulation, though weekly rates have since plunged to 0.2 per 100,000 amid low national flu activity and a shift toward influenza B detections. Forecasts from CDC's FluSight ensemble predict further declines in hospital admissions. Realistic challenges include substantial upward revisions from reporting delays or an unforeseen late-season surge, but persistent low test positivity and declining trends make shifts to adjacent bins unlikely; final confirmation arrives in Thursday's FluView update.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Marché ouvert : May 8, 2026, 12:14 PM ET
Volume
$13,325Date de fin
15 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 8, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.The latest preliminary CDC FluSurv-NET data places the cumulative laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalization rate through Week 18 (ending May 9, 2026) squarely in the 85–90 per 100,000 population range, driving trader consensus to a 98.5% implied probability for this outcome. Week 17's official cumulative rate stood at 86.0 per 100,000—the third highest since the 2010–2011 season—fueled earlier by dominant influenza A(H3N2) circulation, though weekly rates have since plunged to 0.2 per 100,000 amid low national flu activity and a shift toward influenza B detections. Forecasts from CDC's FluSight ensemble predict further declines in hospital admissions. Realistic challenges include substantial upward revisions from reporting delays or an unforeseen late-season surge, but persistent low test positivity and declining trends make shifts to adjacent bins unlikely; final confirmation arrives in Thursday's FluView update.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Volume
$13,325Date de fin
15 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 8, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The latest preliminary CDC FluSurv-NET data places the cumulative laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalization rate through Week 18 (ending May 9, 2026) squarely in the 85–90 per 100,000 population range, driving trader consensus to a 98.5% implied probability for this outcome. Week 17's official cumulative rate stood at 86.0 per 100,000—the third highest since the 2010–2011 season—fueled earlier by dominant influenza A(H3N2) circulation, though weekly rates have since plunged to 0.2 per 100,000 amid low national flu activity and a shift toward influenza B detections. Forecasts from CDC's FluSight ensemble predict further declines in hospital admissions. Realistic challenges include substantial upward revisions from reporting delays or an unforeseen late-season surge, but persistent low test positivity and declining trends make shifts to adjacent bins unlikely; final confirmation arrives in Thursday's FluView update.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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