Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a May 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC at 41% implied probability, closely trailed by 1.10–1.14ºC at 31.5%, reflecting uncertainty in the month's remaining data amid an emerging El Niño. Copernicus reported April 2026 at 1.43ºC above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline—joint third-warmest—driven by lingering neutral-to-weak El Niño precursors, but NOAA's April 9 update forecasts a 61% chance of El Niño development in May–July, potentially adding 0.1–0.2ºC via enhanced Pacific heat release. Differentiating factors include partial early-May observations from ERA5 reanalysis, ensemble model spreads on intensification rates, and minor influences like declining solar activity; final Copernicus bulletin expected early June will resolve based on full-month average.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 41%
1.10–1.14ºC 32%
<1.10ºC 11%
1.20–1.24ºC 11%
$21,265 Vol.
$21,265 Vol.
10 juin 2026
<1.10ºC
11%
1.10–1.14ºC
32%
1.15–1.19ºC
41%
1.20–1.24ºC
11%
1.25–1.29ºC
6%
>1.29ºC
2%
1.15–1.19ºC 41%
1.10–1.14ºC 32%
<1.10ºC 11%
1.20–1.24ºC 11%
$21,265 Vol.
$21,265 Vol.
10 juin 2026
<1.10ºC
$9,423 Vol.
11%
1.10–1.14ºC
$1,011 Vol.
32%
1.15–1.19ºC
$2,111 Vol.
41%
1.20–1.24ºC
$861 Vol.
11%
1.25–1.29ºC
$2,790 Vol.
6%
>1.29ºC
$5,069 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a May 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC at 41% implied probability, closely trailed by 1.10–1.14ºC at 31.5%, reflecting uncertainty in the month's remaining data amid an emerging El Niño. Copernicus reported April 2026 at 1.43ºC above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline—joint third-warmest—driven by lingering neutral-to-weak El Niño precursors, but NOAA's April 9 update forecasts a 61% chance of El Niño development in May–July, potentially adding 0.1–0.2ºC via enhanced Pacific heat release. Differentiating factors include partial early-May observations from ERA5 reanalysis, ensemble model spreads on intensification rates, and minor influences like declining solar activity; final Copernicus bulletin expected early June will resolve based on full-month average.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Marché ouvert : Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volume
$21,265Date de fin
10 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a May 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC at 41% implied probability, closely trailed by 1.10–1.14ºC at 31.5%, reflecting uncertainty in the month's remaining data amid an emerging El Niño. Copernicus reported April 2026 at 1.43ºC above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline—joint third-warmest—driven by lingering neutral-to-weak El Niño precursors, but NOAA's April 9 update forecasts a 61% chance of El Niño development in May–July, potentially adding 0.1–0.2ºC via enhanced Pacific heat release. Differentiating factors include partial early-May observations from ERA5 reanalysis, ensemble model spreads on intensification rates, and minor influences like declining solar activity; final Copernicus bulletin expected early June will resolve based on full-month average.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$21,265Date de fin
10 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a May 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC at 41% implied probability, closely trailed by 1.10–1.14ºC at 31.5%, reflecting uncertainty in the month's remaining data amid an emerging El Niño. Copernicus reported April 2026 at 1.43ºC above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline—joint third-warmest—driven by lingering neutral-to-weak El Niño precursors, but NOAA's April 9 update forecasts a 61% chance of El Niño development in May–July, potentially adding 0.1–0.2ºC via enhanced Pacific heat release. Differentiating factors include partial early-May observations from ERA5 reanalysis, ensemble model spreads on intensification rates, and minor influences like declining solar activity; final Copernicus bulletin expected early June will resolve based on full-month average.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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