Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in ensemble forecasts from models like ECMWF and GFS for Shanghai's minimum temperature on May 17, with members spreading outcomes evenly across 16–24°C amid persistent southerly winds and overcast conditions keeping recent lows around 19–20°C, as reported by the China Meteorological Administration. Mid-May climatology favors averages near 17°C, but current subtropical monsoon flow supports milder readings above 18°C unless a weak frontal trough disrupts cloud cover or introduces cooler air overnight. Differentiating factors include low-level wind shear strength, urban heat island amplification in Shanghai's official station data, and timing of any diurnal clearing; new 00Z model runs expected within 24 hours could sharpen probabilities as resolution nears.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à Shanghai le 17 mai ?
La température la plus basse à Shanghai le 17 mai ?
20°C 27%
21°C 27%
19°C 24%
17°C 18%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
17 mai 2026
14°C ou moins
3%
15°C
3%
16°C
3%
17°C
18%
18°C
18%
19°C
24%
20°C
27%
21°C
27%
22°C
5%
23°C
7%
24°C ou plus
14%
20°C 27%
21°C 27%
19°C 24%
17°C 18%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
17 mai 2026
14°C ou moins
$15 Vol.
3%
15°C
$0 Vol.
3%
16°C
$0 Vol.
3%
17°C
$0 Vol.
18%
18°C
$0 Vol.
18%
19°C
$0 Vol.
24%
20°C
$0 Vol.
27%
21°C
$0 Vol.
27%
22°C
$0 Vol.
5%
23°C
$11 Vol.
7%
24°C ou plus
$210 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in ensemble forecasts from models like ECMWF and GFS for Shanghai's minimum temperature on May 17, with members spreading outcomes evenly across 16–24°C amid persistent southerly winds and overcast conditions keeping recent lows around 19–20°C, as reported by the China Meteorological Administration. Mid-May climatology favors averages near 17°C, but current subtropical monsoon flow supports milder readings above 18°C unless a weak frontal trough disrupts cloud cover or introduces cooler air overnight. Differentiating factors include low-level wind shear strength, urban heat island amplification in Shanghai's official station data, and timing of any diurnal clearing; new 00Z model runs expected within 24 hours could sharpen probabilities as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Volume
$236Date de fin
17 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in ensemble forecasts from models like ECMWF and GFS for Shanghai's minimum temperature on May 17, with members spreading outcomes evenly across 16–24°C amid persistent southerly winds and overcast conditions keeping recent lows around 19–20°C, as reported by the China Meteorological Administration. Mid-May climatology favors averages near 17°C, but current subtropical monsoon flow supports milder readings above 18°C unless a weak frontal trough disrupts cloud cover or introduces cooler air overnight. Differentiating factors include low-level wind shear strength, urban heat island amplification in Shanghai's official station data, and timing of any diurnal clearing; new 00Z model runs expected within 24 hours could sharpen probabilities as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$236Date de fin
17 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in ensemble forecasts from models like ECMWF and GFS for Shanghai's minimum temperature on May 17, with members spreading outcomes evenly across 16–24°C amid persistent southerly winds and overcast conditions keeping recent lows around 19–20°C, as reported by the China Meteorological Administration. Mid-May climatology favors averages near 17°C, but current subtropical monsoon flow supports milder readings above 18°C unless a weak frontal trough disrupts cloud cover or introduces cooler air overnight. Differentiating factors include low-level wind shear strength, urban heat island amplification in Shanghai's official station data, and timing of any diurnal clearing; new 00Z model runs expected within 24 hours could sharpen probabilities as resolution nears.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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