Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service guidance for New York City's Central Park station, with ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF implying overnight lows near 63°F on May 17 amid a mild southerly flow and potential lingering clouds from prior showers, elevating probabilities for 62-65°F outcomes above climatological mid-May norms of 55-57°F. Differentiating factors include the extent of radiative cooling under partial clearing versus persistent low-level moisture trapping heat—more clearing favors 62-63°F, while urban heat island effects and sustained winds could push toward 64-65°F. Recent 12Z runs show slight warming trends, but model spread persists; watch evening NWS updates and 00Z guidance for resolution shifts before the landfall window closes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTempérature la plus basse à New York le 17 mai ?
Température la plus basse à New York le 17 mai ?
62-63°F 32%
64-65°F 28%
66-67 °F 14%
60-61°F 10%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
17 mai 2026
55°F ou moins
1%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
7%
60-61°F
10%
62-63°F
28%
64-65°F
28%
66-67 °F
16%
68-69 °F
4%
70-71°F
5%
72-73°F
1%
74°F ou plus
<1%
62-63°F 32%
64-65°F 28%
66-67 °F 14%
60-61°F 10%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
17 mai 2026
55°F ou moins
$62 Vol.
1%
56-57°F
$2 Vol.
1%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
7%
60-61°F
$50 Vol.
10%
62-63°F
$9 Vol.
28%
64-65°F
$14 Vol.
28%
66-67 °F
$45 Vol.
16%
68-69 °F
$122 Vol.
4%
70-71°F
$91 Vol.
5%
72-73°F
$35 Vol.
1%
74°F ou plus
$89 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service guidance for New York City's Central Park station, with ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF implying overnight lows near 63°F on May 17 amid a mild southerly flow and potential lingering clouds from prior showers, elevating probabilities for 62-65°F outcomes above climatological mid-May norms of 55-57°F. Differentiating factors include the extent of radiative cooling under partial clearing versus persistent low-level moisture trapping heat—more clearing favors 62-63°F, while urban heat island effects and sustained winds could push toward 64-65°F. Recent 12Z runs show slight warming trends, but model spread persists; watch evening NWS updates and 00Z guidance for resolution shifts before the landfall window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Volume
$518Date de fin
17 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service guidance for New York City's Central Park station, with ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF implying overnight lows near 63°F on May 17 amid a mild southerly flow and potential lingering clouds from prior showers, elevating probabilities for 62-65°F outcomes above climatological mid-May norms of 55-57°F. Differentiating factors include the extent of radiative cooling under partial clearing versus persistent low-level moisture trapping heat—more clearing favors 62-63°F, while urban heat island effects and sustained winds could push toward 64-65°F. Recent 12Z runs show slight warming trends, but model spread persists; watch evening NWS updates and 00Z guidance for resolution shifts before the landfall window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$518Date de fin
17 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGATrader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service guidance for New York City's Central Park station, with ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF implying overnight lows near 63°F on May 17 amid a mild southerly flow and potential lingering clouds from prior showers, elevating probabilities for 62-65°F outcomes above climatological mid-May norms of 55-57°F. Differentiating factors include the extent of radiative cooling under partial clearing versus persistent low-level moisture trapping heat—more clearing favors 62-63°F, while urban heat island effects and sustained winds could push toward 64-65°F. Recent 12Z runs show slight warming trends, but model spread persists; watch evening NWS updates and 00Z guidance for resolution shifts before the landfall window closes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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