National Weather Service guidance and ensemble means from the GFS and ECMWF models currently place the overnight low at LaGuardia Airport in the 53–56 °F range, anchoring overwhelming market consensus on the 54–55 °F bin. This reflects stable high-pressure conditions suppressing cloud cover and allowing radiational cooling to proceed at a moderate rate typical for mid-May in the New York metro area, where climatological minimums average near 53 °F. Traders have priced in minimal upside or downside risk because the forecast window is narrow and model agreement is high. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected shift in steering flow that either advects cooler marine air or increases cloud cover enough to limit overnight temperature drop below 53 °F, though neither scenario appears probable in the latest model runs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTempérature la plus basse à New York le 16 mai ?
54-55°F 99.5%
44-45°F <1%
46-47°F <1%
48-49°F <1%
$13,089 Vol.
$13,089 Vol.
43°F ou moins
<1%
44-45°F
<1%
46-47°F
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51 °F
<1%
52-53 °F
<1%
54-55°F
100%
56-57°F
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62°F ou plus
<1%
54-55°F 99.5%
44-45°F <1%
46-47°F <1%
48-49°F <1%
$13,089 Vol.
$13,089 Vol.
43°F ou moins
<1%
44-45°F
<1%
46-47°F
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51 °F
<1%
52-53 °F
<1%
54-55°F
100%
56-57°F
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62°F ou plus
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGANational Weather Service guidance and ensemble means from the GFS and ECMWF models currently place the overnight low at LaGuardia Airport in the 53–56 °F range, anchoring overwhelming market consensus on the 54–55 °F bin. This reflects stable high-pressure conditions suppressing cloud cover and allowing radiational cooling to proceed at a moderate rate typical for mid-May in the New York metro area, where climatological minimums average near 53 °F. Traders have priced in minimal upside or downside risk because the forecast window is narrow and model agreement is high. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected shift in steering flow that either advects cooler marine air or increases cloud cover enough to limit overnight temperature drop below 53 °F, though neither scenario appears probable in the latest model runs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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