Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Chengdu's high temperature on May 16, with 29°C edging out 28°C as the implied frontrunner amid mid-May climatological norms of 26–30°C in the Sichuan Basin. Recent long-range projections from meteorological services like Accuweather indicate daily highs averaging 29°C (84°F), driven by strengthening subtropical ridge enhancing solar heating and reduced cloud cover following early-May clearing trends. Key differentiators include potential for slight intensification from downslope winds pushing toward 30°C or higher (18.5% odds), versus patchy rain or humidity capping at 27–28°C (40% combined). Inherent model divergence on exact boundary layer conditions keeps lower and higher outcomes viable at low probabilities; final China Meteorological Administration observations from Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport will resolve the market tomorrow.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Chengdu on May 16?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on May 16?
28°C 28%
29°C 25%
27°C 19%
30°C 17%
NOUVEAU
$11,439 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$11,439 Vol.
16 mai 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
7%
27°C
19%
28°C
28%
29°C
25%
30°C
17%
31°C or higher
8%
28°C 28%
29°C 25%
27°C 19%
30°C 17%
NOUVEAU
$11,439 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$11,439 Vol.
16 mai 2026
21°C or below
$1,041 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$719 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$639 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,160 Vol.
1%
25°C
$1,049 Vol.
1%
26°C
$970 Vol.
7%
27°C
$1,644 Vol.
19%
28°C
$1,148 Vol.
28%
29°C
$729 Vol.
25%
30°C
$1,170 Vol.
17%
31°C or higher
$1,181 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Chengdu's high temperature on May 16, with 29°C edging out 28°C as the implied frontrunner amid mid-May climatological norms of 26–30°C in the Sichuan Basin. Recent long-range projections from meteorological services like Accuweather indicate daily highs averaging 29°C (84°F), driven by strengthening subtropical ridge enhancing solar heating and reduced cloud cover following early-May clearing trends. Key differentiators include potential for slight intensification from downslope winds pushing toward 30°C or higher (18.5% odds), versus patchy rain or humidity capping at 27–28°C (40% combined). Inherent model divergence on exact boundary layer conditions keeps lower and higher outcomes viable at low probabilities; final China Meteorological Administration observations from Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport will resolve the market tomorrow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : May 14, 2026, 12:42 AM ET
Volume
$11,439Date de fin
16 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 14, 2026, 12:42 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Chengdu's high temperature on May 16, with 29°C edging out 28°C as the implied frontrunner amid mid-May climatological norms of 26–30°C in the Sichuan Basin. Recent long-range projections from meteorological services like Accuweather indicate daily highs averaging 29°C (84°F), driven by strengthening subtropical ridge enhancing solar heating and reduced cloud cover following early-May clearing trends. Key differentiators include potential for slight intensification from downslope winds pushing toward 30°C or higher (18.5% odds), versus patchy rain or humidity capping at 27–28°C (40% combined). Inherent model divergence on exact boundary layer conditions keeps lower and higher outcomes viable at low probabilities; final China Meteorological Administration observations from Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport will resolve the market tomorrow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$11,439Date de fin
16 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 14, 2026, 12:42 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Chengdu's high temperature on May 16, with 29°C edging out 28°C as the implied frontrunner amid mid-May climatological norms of 26–30°C in the Sichuan Basin. Recent long-range projections from meteorological services like Accuweather indicate daily highs averaging 29°C (84°F), driven by strengthening subtropical ridge enhancing solar heating and reduced cloud cover following early-May clearing trends. Key differentiators include potential for slight intensification from downslope winds pushing toward 30°C or higher (18.5% odds), versus patchy rain or humidity capping at 27–28°C (40% combined). Inherent model divergence on exact boundary layer conditions keeps lower and higher outcomes viable at low probabilities; final China Meteorological Administration observations from Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport will resolve the market tomorrow.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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