Latest Met Office and ECMWF model runs show London’s overnight low on May 19 settling near 10–12 °C under mostly cloudy skies and a light southwesterly flow that limits radiative cooling. This pattern, consistent with the warmer-than-average spring across northwest Europe, has nudged trader consensus toward these two outcomes, each now at 18.5 %. Historical mid-May minima average 7–9 °C, yet current guidance keeps the floor elevated by suppressing clear-night temperature drops. Cloud thickness and wind speed remain the key variables that could shift the final recorded low; any unexpected clearing could allow readings to dip toward 9 °C, while persistent cloud and breeze would lock values closer to 12 °C. Next 48-hour model updates will clarify the balance.