Trader consensus around a 94.5% implied probability of no Ebola emergency declaration by June 30 reflects the localized character of the newly confirmed outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo’s Ituri province. As of mid-May 2026, official reports list 246 suspected cases and 65–80 deaths, with only 13 laboratory-confirmed infections of the Zaire ebolavirus species, prompting the DRC health ministry and Africa CDC to activate emergency operations centers and deploy rapid-response teams. Historical precedent shows most of the country’s 17 prior Ebola outbreaks remained contained through contact tracing and ring vaccination without triggering a WHO Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Key variables that could alter this trajectory include rapid case growth, confirmed cross-border transmission into Uganda or South Sudan, or revised genomic data indicating heightened transmissibility; surveillance updates from WHO and national laboratories in the coming weeks will provide the clearest signals for any shift in market-implied odds.