Latest Météo-France guidance projects a Paris daytime high of 15°C on May 16, driving trader consensus to 41.5% implied probability for that outcome amid persistent cool, unstable weather over Île-de-France. This reflects ongoing low-pressure influence and westerly winds advecting chilly Atlantic air, combined with frequent showers and cloud cover limiting solar heating—conditions that have kept recent highs, like May 14's 12-14°C, well below the 19°C mid-May climatological norm at Paris-Montsouris station. ECMWF and GFS ensemble models show tight clustering around 14-16°C, capturing uncertainty from variable cloud breaks, with adjacent outcomes at 22% each. Monitor Météo-France hourly updates and fresh model runs on May 15 for potential shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTempérature la plus élevée à Paris le 16 mai ?
Température la plus élevée à Paris le 16 mai ?
15°C 35%
16°C 34%
14°C 19%
17°C 13%
10°C ou moins
1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
3%
13°C
4%
14°C
19%
15°C
35%
16°C
34%
17°C
13%
18°C
3%
19°C
1%
20°C ou plus
<1%
15°C 35%
16°C 34%
14°C 19%
17°C 13%
10°C ou moins
1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
3%
13°C
4%
14°C
19%
15°C
35%
16°C
34%
17°C
13%
18°C
3%
19°C
1%
20°C ou plus
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : May 14, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest Météo-France guidance projects a Paris daytime high of 15°C on May 16, driving trader consensus to 41.5% implied probability for that outcome amid persistent cool, unstable weather over Île-de-France. This reflects ongoing low-pressure influence and westerly winds advecting chilly Atlantic air, combined with frequent showers and cloud cover limiting solar heating—conditions that have kept recent highs, like May 14's 12-14°C, well below the 19°C mid-May climatological norm at Paris-Montsouris station. ECMWF and GFS ensemble models show tight clustering around 14-16°C, capturing uncertainty from variable cloud breaks, with adjacent outcomes at 22% each. Monitor Météo-France hourly updates and fresh model runs on May 15 for potential shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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