Official Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observations from Tokyo's central weather station confirm the daily maximum temperature reached exactly 24°C this afternoon, matching short-range mesoscale model consensus that projected peaks of 23–25°C amid partly cloudy skies and moderate southerly winds. This aligns precisely with mid-May climatological averages of 23.5°C, influenced by seasonal high-pressure ridging over the Kanto region. With sunset past and evening cooling underway—current readings around 19°C—traders assign 100% implied probability to 24°C, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on observational data over volatile late-day fluctuations. A realistic challenge would require an improbable heat burst exceeding 25°C before midnight resolution, barred by sinking temperatures and cloud cover; final JMA daily bulletin expected within hours.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 14?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 14?
24°C 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$113,257 Vol.
$113,257 Vol.
17°C or below
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
Yes
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C or higher
No
24°C 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$113,257 Vol.
$113,257 Vol.
17°C or below
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
Yes
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : May 12, 2026, 12:47 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
Official Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observations from Tokyo's central weather station confirm the daily maximum temperature reached exactly 24°C this afternoon, matching short-range mesoscale model consensus that projected peaks of 23–25°C amid partly cloudy skies and moderate southerly winds. This aligns precisely with mid-May climatological averages of 23.5°C, influenced by seasonal high-pressure ridging over the Kanto region. With sunset past and evening cooling underway—current readings around 19°C—traders assign 100% implied probability to 24°C, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on observational data over volatile late-day fluctuations. A realistic challenge would require an improbable heat burst exceeding 25°C before midnight resolution, barred by sinking temperatures and cloud cover; final JMA daily bulletin expected within hours.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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