Current meteorological observations and forecast models indicate that Warsaw’s maximum temperature on May 16 will reach 15 °C, driven by persistent cloud cover, northerly flow, and limited solar insolation that have kept daytime heating modest throughout the day. Official surface station data and ensemble guidance show the thermal profile stabilizing near this threshold, consistent with typical mid-May climatology under similar synoptic regimes. Trader consensus reflects this near-certainty because any deviation would require rapid clearing or unexpected warm advection, both of which are now highly unlikely given the late-hour timing and verified readings. The only realistic challenges remain minor forecast adjustments from final model runs or localized microclimate variations that could nudge the peak by one degree either side of 15 °C.