Recent KNMI and ECMWF model guidance points to a persistent cool maritime air mass over the North Sea, with northwest winds near force 3-4 expected to limit daytime heating and produce variable cloud cover with scattered showers on May 18. Ensemble spreads from GFS show maximum temperatures clustering between 14–16 °C at Schiphol, consistent with recent days’ observed peaks 3–5 °C below the long-term May average of 16–18 °C. Light precipitation and reduced insolation are the dominant factors narrowing the distribution around the 14 °C and 15 °C bins, while any afternoon clearing could push readings toward 16 °C. Updated short-range forecasts issued in the next 24–48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.