High-resolution forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Spain’s AEMET agency currently converge on a daytime maximum near 20°C for Madrid, supported by a stable high-pressure ridge that promotes clear skies and light northerly flow while limiting vertical mixing and surface heating. This consensus places the 20°C outcome at an implied 57% probability, with 21°C holding secondary support at 16.5%. Recent model runs show minimal spread due to consistent subsidence and modest moisture levels, reducing the likelihood of rapid afternoon warming or unexpected cloud cover. Traders are also monitoring any final AEMET updates before the daily peak, as even small shifts in boundary-layer conditions could nudge readings into adjacent bins.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Madrid on May 16?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 16?
20°C 62%
21°C 23%
19°C 12%
22°C 5.1%
$58,636 Vol.
$58,636 Vol.
16 mai 2026
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
12%
20°C
62%
21°C
23%
22°C
5%
23°C
1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
20°C 62%
21°C 23%
19°C 12%
22°C 5.1%
$58,636 Vol.
$58,636 Vol.
16 mai 2026
17°C
$8,090 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$8,335 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$5,021 Vol.
12%
20°C
$4,427 Vol.
62%
21°C
$5,733 Vol.
23%
22°C
$4,082 Vol.
5%
23°C
$5,639 Vol.
1%
24°C
$5,070 Vol.
<1%
25°C or higher
$2,355 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.High-resolution forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Spain’s AEMET agency currently converge on a daytime maximum near 20°C for Madrid, supported by a stable high-pressure ridge that promotes clear skies and light northerly flow while limiting vertical mixing and surface heating. This consensus places the 20°C outcome at an implied 57% probability, with 21°C holding secondary support at 16.5%. Recent model runs show minimal spread due to consistent subsidence and modest moisture levels, reducing the likelihood of rapid afternoon warming or unexpected cloud cover. Traders are also monitoring any final AEMET updates before the daily peak, as even small shifts in boundary-layer conditions could nudge readings into adjacent bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : May 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$58,636Date de fin
16 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.High-resolution forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Spain’s AEMET agency currently converge on a daytime maximum near 20°C for Madrid, supported by a stable high-pressure ridge that promotes clear skies and light northerly flow while limiting vertical mixing and surface heating. This consensus places the 20°C outcome at an implied 57% probability, with 21°C holding secondary support at 16.5%. Recent model runs show minimal spread due to consistent subsidence and modest moisture levels, reducing the likelihood of rapid afternoon warming or unexpected cloud cover. Traders are also monitoring any final AEMET updates before the daily peak, as even small shifts in boundary-layer conditions could nudge readings into adjacent bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$58,636Date de fin
16 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...High-resolution forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Spain’s AEMET agency currently converge on a daytime maximum near 20°C for Madrid, supported by a stable high-pressure ridge that promotes clear skies and light northerly flow while limiting vertical mixing and surface heating. This consensus places the 20°C outcome at an implied 57% probability, with 21°C holding secondary support at 16.5%. Recent model runs show minimal spread due to consistent subsidence and modest moisture levels, reducing the likelihood of rapid afternoon warming or unexpected cloud cover. Traders are also monitoring any final AEMET updates before the daily peak, as even small shifts in boundary-layer conditions could nudge readings into adjacent bins.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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