Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 45% implied probability for a 64-65°F high at San Francisco International Airport (SFO) on May 16, driven by the latest National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts indicating partly sunny conditions with highs near 65°F amid persistent marine layer stratus clouds and moderate west winds of 10-15 mph. This positioning reflects convergence in recent GFS and ECMWF model runs showing limited inland warming potential due to cool Pacific air advection and delayed coastal burn-off, consistent with May climatology where SFO averages 67°F but often dips into the low 60s under similar onshore flow patterns observed over the past week (e.g., May 11 high of 71°F followed by cooler 60s). Key uncertainty lies in afternoon clearing timing, which could push toward 66-67°F (24% odds); final NWS updates expected this evening ahead of hourly observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in San Francisco on May 16?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on May 16?
64-65°F 43%
66-67°F 24%
62-63°F 22%
68°F or higher 10%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
16 mai 2026
49°F or below
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
<1%
54-55°F
<1%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
1%
60-61°F
4%
62-63°F
22%
64-65°F
43%
66-67°F
24%
68°F or higher
10%
64-65°F 43%
66-67°F 24%
62-63°F 22%
68°F or higher 10%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
16 mai 2026
49°F or below
$1,005 Vol.
<1%
50-51°F
$570 Vol.
<1%
52-53°F
$535 Vol.
<1%
54-55°F
$445 Vol.
<1%
56-57°F
$101 Vol.
1%
58-59°F
$351 Vol.
1%
60-61°F
$661 Vol.
4%
62-63°F
$839 Vol.
22%
64-65°F
$505 Vol.
43%
66-67°F
$307 Vol.
24%
68°F or higher
$445 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 45% implied probability for a 64-65°F high at San Francisco International Airport (SFO) on May 16, driven by the latest National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts indicating partly sunny conditions with highs near 65°F amid persistent marine layer stratus clouds and moderate west winds of 10-15 mph. This positioning reflects convergence in recent GFS and ECMWF model runs showing limited inland warming potential due to cool Pacific air advection and delayed coastal burn-off, consistent with May climatology where SFO averages 67°F but often dips into the low 60s under similar onshore flow patterns observed over the past week (e.g., May 11 high of 71°F followed by cooler 60s). Key uncertainty lies in afternoon clearing timing, which could push toward 66-67°F (24% odds); final NWS updates expected this evening ahead of hourly observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : May 14, 2026, 12:27 AM ET
Volume
$5,764Date de fin
16 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 14, 2026, 12:27 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 45% implied probability for a 64-65°F high at San Francisco International Airport (SFO) on May 16, driven by the latest National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts indicating partly sunny conditions with highs near 65°F amid persistent marine layer stratus clouds and moderate west winds of 10-15 mph. This positioning reflects convergence in recent GFS and ECMWF model runs showing limited inland warming potential due to cool Pacific air advection and delayed coastal burn-off, consistent with May climatology where SFO averages 67°F but often dips into the low 60s under similar onshore flow patterns observed over the past week (e.g., May 11 high of 71°F followed by cooler 60s). Key uncertainty lies in afternoon clearing timing, which could push toward 66-67°F (24% odds); final NWS updates expected this evening ahead of hourly observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5,764Date de fin
16 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 14, 2026, 12:27 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 45% implied probability for a 64-65°F high at San Francisco International Airport (SFO) on May 16, driven by the latest National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts indicating partly sunny conditions with highs near 65°F amid persistent marine layer stratus clouds and moderate west winds of 10-15 mph. This positioning reflects convergence in recent GFS and ECMWF model runs showing limited inland warming potential due to cool Pacific air advection and delayed coastal burn-off, consistent with May climatology where SFO averages 67°F but often dips into the low 60s under similar onshore flow patterns observed over the past week (e.g., May 11 high of 71°F followed by cooler 60s). Key uncertainty lies in afternoon clearing timing, which could push toward 66-67°F (24% odds); final NWS updates expected this evening ahead of hourly observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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