The market's overwhelming 99.9% implied probability for a 25°C low in Hong Kong on May 15 reflects the consistent climatological pattern for mid-May nighttime minima under the city's subtropical monsoon regime, where the Hong Kong Observatory routinely records values between 24–26°C absent major synoptic disruptions. Recent upper-air observations and sea-surface temperatures around 27–28°C have sustained typical heat retention overnight, aligning closely with historical May averages from the past decade. A realistic challenge would require an unusually strong cold surge or persistent heavy rainfall to drop readings into the low 20s, though model guidance shows low probability of such an event this late in the spring transition.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
25°C 99.9%
18°C ou moins <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$63,402 Vol.
$63,402 Vol.
15 mai 2026
18°C ou moins
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
25°C 99.9%
18°C ou moins <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$63,402 Vol.
$63,402 Vol.
15 mai 2026
18°C ou moins
$2,496 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$2,286 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$2,298 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$2,278 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$3,789 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$5,174 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$12,249 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$8,650 Vol.
100%
26°C
$12,002 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$8,229 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$3,951 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market's overwhelming 99.9% implied probability for a 25°C low in Hong Kong on May 15 reflects the consistent climatological pattern for mid-May nighttime minima under the city's subtropical monsoon regime, where the Hong Kong Observatory routinely records values between 24–26°C absent major synoptic disruptions. Recent upper-air observations and sea-surface temperatures around 27–28°C have sustained typical heat retention overnight, aligning closely with historical May averages from the past decade. A realistic challenge would require an unusually strong cold surge or persistent heavy rainfall to drop readings into the low 20s, though model guidance shows low probability of such an event this late in the spring transition.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Volume
$63,402Date de fin
15 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market's overwhelming 99.9% implied probability for a 25°C low in Hong Kong on May 15 reflects the consistent climatological pattern for mid-May nighttime minima under the city's subtropical monsoon regime, where the Hong Kong Observatory routinely records values between 24–26°C absent major synoptic disruptions. Recent upper-air observations and sea-surface temperatures around 27–28°C have sustained typical heat retention overnight, aligning closely with historical May averages from the past decade. A realistic challenge would require an unusually strong cold surge or persistent heavy rainfall to drop readings into the low 20s, though model guidance shows low probability of such an event this late in the spring transition.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$63,402Date de fin
15 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The market's overwhelming 99.9% implied probability for a 25°C low in Hong Kong on May 15 reflects the consistent climatological pattern for mid-May nighttime minima under the city's subtropical monsoon regime, where the Hong Kong Observatory routinely records values between 24–26°C absent major synoptic disruptions. Recent upper-air observations and sea-surface temperatures around 27–28°C have sustained typical heat retention overnight, aligning closely with historical May averages from the past decade. A realistic challenge would require an unusually strong cold surge or persistent heavy rainfall to drop readings into the low 20s, though model guidance shows low probability of such an event this late in the spring transition.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes