Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Chongqing's May 15 high temperature, with models like the China Meteorological Administration forecasting 27°C amid moderate rain and mostly cloudy skies, yet probabilities favoring 24°C (leading at 30.5%) due to potential cooling from morning showers and high humidity suppressing diurnal heating. Differentiating factors include slight ensemble spreads across ECMWF and GFS runs—earlier projections trended warmer (near 28°C), but recent updates emphasize cloud cover persistence, echoing recent days' actuals around 25–30°C that fell short of sunnier analogs. Historical May rainy days in Chongqing average 2–3°C below baselines, amplifying doubt on exceeding 26°C. Watch afternoon soundings and CMA evening briefings for shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Chongqing on May 15?
Highest temperature in Chongqing on May 15?
24°C 33%
23°C 22%
25°C 22%
22°C 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
15 mai 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
2%
22°C
12%
23°C
22%
24°C
33%
25°C
22%
26°C
9%
27°C or higher
3%
24°C 33%
23°C 22%
25°C 22%
22°C 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
15 mai 2026
17°C or below
$912 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,572 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$236 Vol.
1%
20°C
$1,131 Vol.
1%
21°C
$940 Vol.
2%
22°C
$178 Vol.
12%
23°C
$367 Vol.
22%
24°C
$322 Vol.
33%
25°C
$128 Vol.
22%
26°C
$682 Vol.
9%
27°C or higher
$2,284 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Chongqing's May 15 high temperature, with models like the China Meteorological Administration forecasting 27°C amid moderate rain and mostly cloudy skies, yet probabilities favoring 24°C (leading at 30.5%) due to potential cooling from morning showers and high humidity suppressing diurnal heating. Differentiating factors include slight ensemble spreads across ECMWF and GFS runs—earlier projections trended warmer (near 28°C), but recent updates emphasize cloud cover persistence, echoing recent days' actuals around 25–30°C that fell short of sunnier analogs. Historical May rainy days in Chongqing average 2–3°C below baselines, amplifying doubt on exceeding 26°C. Watch afternoon soundings and CMA evening briefings for shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : May 13, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Volume
$8,752Date de fin
15 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 13, 2026, 12:12 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Chongqing's May 15 high temperature, with models like the China Meteorological Administration forecasting 27°C amid moderate rain and mostly cloudy skies, yet probabilities favoring 24°C (leading at 30.5%) due to potential cooling from morning showers and high humidity suppressing diurnal heating. Differentiating factors include slight ensemble spreads across ECMWF and GFS runs—earlier projections trended warmer (near 28°C), but recent updates emphasize cloud cover persistence, echoing recent days' actuals around 25–30°C that fell short of sunnier analogs. Historical May rainy days in Chongqing average 2–3°C below baselines, amplifying doubt on exceeding 26°C. Watch afternoon soundings and CMA evening briefings for shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$8,752Date de fin
15 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 13, 2026, 12:12 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Chongqing's May 15 high temperature, with models like the China Meteorological Administration forecasting 27°C amid moderate rain and mostly cloudy skies, yet probabilities favoring 24°C (leading at 30.5%) due to potential cooling from morning showers and high humidity suppressing diurnal heating. Differentiating factors include slight ensemble spreads across ECMWF and GFS runs—earlier projections trended warmer (near 28°C), but recent updates emphasize cloud cover persistence, echoing recent days' actuals around 25–30°C that fell short of sunnier analogs. Historical May rainy days in Chongqing average 2–3°C below baselines, amplifying doubt on exceeding 26°C. Watch afternoon soundings and CMA evening briefings for shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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