The market's near-certain consensus against an Ebola pandemic in 2026 stems from the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, which has produced over 4,600 confirmed cases and 2,180 deaths as of mid-August but shows no sustained international spread beyond affected African regions. Official data from the CDC and WHO confirm low transmission risk to the United States and elsewhere, as orthoebolaviruses require direct contact with bodily fluids rather than efficient airborne routes, enabling effective containment through contact tracing, isolation, and community measures despite local challenges like conflict. Historical patterns of prior Ebola outbreaks further support containment before pandemic thresholds. Realistic shifts could arise from undetected exportation to travel hubs, mutation increasing transmissibility, or response failures in remote areas, though current surveillance indicates these remain low-probability.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourEbola pandemic in 2026?
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
4% chance
$691,779 Vol.
$691,779 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
4% chance
$691,779 Vol.
$691,779 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The market's near-certain consensus against an Ebola pandemic in 2026 stems from the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, which has produced over 4,600 confirmed cases and 2,180 deaths as of mid-August but shows no sustained international spread beyond affected African regions. Official data from the CDC and WHO confirm low transmission risk to the United States and elsewhere, as orthoebolaviruses require direct contact with bodily fluids rather than efficient airborne routes, enabling effective containment through contact tracing, isolation, and community measures despite local challenges like conflict. Historical patterns of prior Ebola outbreaks further support containment before pandemic thresholds. Realistic shifts could arise from undetected exportation to travel hubs, mutation increasing transmissibility, or response failures in remote areas, though current surveillance indicates these remain low-probability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Volume
$691,779Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The market's near-certain consensus against an Ebola pandemic in 2026 stems from the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, which has produced over 4,600 confirmed cases and 2,180 deaths as of mid-August but shows no sustained international spread beyond affected African regions. Official data from the CDC and WHO confirm low transmission risk to the United States and elsewhere, as orthoebolaviruses require direct contact with bodily fluids rather than efficient airborne routes, enabling effective containment through contact tracing, isolation, and community measures despite local challenges like conflict. Historical patterns of prior Ebola outbreaks further support containment before pandemic thresholds. Realistic shifts could arise from undetected exportation to travel hubs, mutation increasing transmissibility, or response failures in remote areas, though current surveillance indicates these remain low-probability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$691,779Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The market's near-certain consensus against an Ebola pandemic in 2026 stems from the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, which has produced over 4,600 confirmed cases and 2,180 deaths as of mid-August but shows no sustained international spread beyond affected African regions. Official data from the CDC and WHO confirm low transmission risk to the United States and elsewhere, as orthoebolaviruses require direct contact with bodily fluids rather than efficient airborne routes, enabling effective containment through contact tracing, isolation, and community measures despite local challenges like conflict. Historical patterns of prior Ebola outbreaks further support containment before pandemic thresholds. Realistic shifts could arise from undetected exportation to travel hubs, mutation increasing transmissibility, or response failures in remote areas, though current surveillance indicates these remain low-probability.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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