**Regional containment and Ebola's transmission biology explain the 96.3% market-implied probability of no pandemic in 2026.** The ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak, centered in northeastern Democratic Republic of the Congo with limited spread into Uganda, has produced thousands of confirmed cases and roughly 2,000 deaths as of mid-August but remains geographically focused. Official assessments from the WHO and CDC classify the global risk as very low because the virus spreads only through direct contact with infected bodily fluids, not airborne routes, enabling effective isolation, contact tracing, and border measures to limit international exportation. Historical patterns show even larger Ebola epidemics stayed regionally contained. While sustained local growth or rare imported cases could occur, no evidence indicates conditions for worldwide dissemination before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourEbola pandemic in 2026?
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
4% chance
$691,779 Vol.
$691,779 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
4% chance
$691,779 Vol.
$691,779 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Regional containment and Ebola's transmission biology explain the 96.3% market-implied probability of no pandemic in 2026.** The ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak, centered in northeastern Democratic Republic of the Congo with limited spread into Uganda, has produced thousands of confirmed cases and roughly 2,000 deaths as of mid-August but remains geographically focused. Official assessments from the WHO and CDC classify the global risk as very low because the virus spreads only through direct contact with infected bodily fluids, not airborne routes, enabling effective isolation, contact tracing, and border measures to limit international exportation. Historical patterns show even larger Ebola epidemics stayed regionally contained. While sustained local growth or rare imported cases could occur, no evidence indicates conditions for worldwide dissemination before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Volume
$691,779Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Regional containment and Ebola's transmission biology explain the 96.3% market-implied probability of no pandemic in 2026.** The ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak, centered in northeastern Democratic Republic of the Congo with limited spread into Uganda, has produced thousands of confirmed cases and roughly 2,000 deaths as of mid-August but remains geographically focused. Official assessments from the WHO and CDC classify the global risk as very low because the virus spreads only through direct contact with infected bodily fluids, not airborne routes, enabling effective isolation, contact tracing, and border measures to limit international exportation. Historical patterns show even larger Ebola epidemics stayed regionally contained. While sustained local growth or rare imported cases could occur, no evidence indicates conditions for worldwide dissemination before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$691,779Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Regional containment and Ebola's transmission biology explain the 96.3% market-implied probability of no pandemic in 2026.** The ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak, centered in northeastern Democratic Republic of the Congo with limited spread into Uganda, has produced thousands of confirmed cases and roughly 2,000 deaths as of mid-August but remains geographically focused. Official assessments from the WHO and CDC classify the global risk as very low because the virus spreads only through direct contact with infected bodily fluids, not airborne routes, enabling effective isolation, contact tracing, and border measures to limit international exportation. Historical patterns show even larger Ebola epidemics stayed regionally contained. While sustained local growth or rare imported cases could occur, no evidence indicates conditions for worldwide dissemination before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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