Ongoing but regionally contained Ebola disease outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, driven by the Bundibugyo virus, underpin the 96.3% market-implied probability against a 2026 pandemic. As of mid-August, official surveillance from WHO and CDC reports roughly 4,665 confirmed cases and over 2,180 deaths, concentrated in Ituri Province with limited spillover now declared resolved in Uganda. This strain lacks approved vaccines or treatments, yet rapid contact tracing, isolation, and border measures have prevented sustained international chains of transmission. Historical patterns show prior Ebola events rarely exceed regional epidemics, and current epidemiological indicators reflect effective containment rather than exponential global growth. Realistic shifts could arise from undetected urban spread or travel-related clusters, though model projections and agency data continue to support low pandemic risk.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourEbola pandemic in 2026?
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
4% chance
$691,779 Vol.
$691,779 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
4% chance
$691,779 Vol.
$691,779 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing but regionally contained Ebola disease outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, driven by the Bundibugyo virus, underpin the 96.3% market-implied probability against a 2026 pandemic. As of mid-August, official surveillance from WHO and CDC reports roughly 4,665 confirmed cases and over 2,180 deaths, concentrated in Ituri Province with limited spillover now declared resolved in Uganda. This strain lacks approved vaccines or treatments, yet rapid contact tracing, isolation, and border measures have prevented sustained international chains of transmission. Historical patterns show prior Ebola events rarely exceed regional epidemics, and current epidemiological indicators reflect effective containment rather than exponential global growth. Realistic shifts could arise from undetected urban spread or travel-related clusters, though model projections and agency data continue to support low pandemic risk.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Volume
$691,779Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing but regionally contained Ebola disease outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, driven by the Bundibugyo virus, underpin the 96.3% market-implied probability against a 2026 pandemic. As of mid-August, official surveillance from WHO and CDC reports roughly 4,665 confirmed cases and over 2,180 deaths, concentrated in Ituri Province with limited spillover now declared resolved in Uganda. This strain lacks approved vaccines or treatments, yet rapid contact tracing, isolation, and border measures have prevented sustained international chains of transmission. Historical patterns show prior Ebola events rarely exceed regional epidemics, and current epidemiological indicators reflect effective containment rather than exponential global growth. Realistic shifts could arise from undetected urban spread or travel-related clusters, though model projections and agency data continue to support low pandemic risk.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$691,779Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing but regionally contained Ebola disease outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, driven by the Bundibugyo virus, underpin the 96.3% market-implied probability against a 2026 pandemic. As of mid-August, official surveillance from WHO and CDC reports roughly 4,665 confirmed cases and over 2,180 deaths, concentrated in Ituri Province with limited spillover now declared resolved in Uganda. This strain lacks approved vaccines or treatments, yet rapid contact tracing, isolation, and border measures have prevented sustained international chains of transmission. Historical patterns show prior Ebola events rarely exceed regional epidemics, and current epidemiological indicators reflect effective containment rather than exponential global growth. Realistic shifts could arise from undetected urban spread or travel-related clusters, though model projections and agency data continue to support low pandemic risk.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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