Current numerical weather prediction ensembles from the National Weather Service project a moderating air mass over the Northeast ahead of May 18, with weak high pressure and limited cloud cover supporting overnight lows in the mid-60s across New York City. This setup explains the market’s tight clustering around 64-65°F and 66-67°F, as forecasters weigh modest warm advection against typical May radiative cooling under clear skies. Historical climatology places average lows near 55-60°F, but the current pattern’s reduced wind and dry conditions favor readings several degrees above that baseline. Fresh model runs from the Global Forecast System and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts arriving in the next 24 hours will clarify whether the minimum settles in the upper or lower half of the favored range.