Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 56-57°F as the lowest temperature in New York City on May 14, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by official National Weather Service observations from the Central Park ASOS station (KNYC), which recorded the daily minimum in that range. Preceding 48-hour forecasts from NOAA models and NWS guidance had centered on 54-55°F with tight ensemble spreads, but actual conditions—featuring partly cloudy skies, light winds, and dew points around 45°F—yielded a warmer overnight low by 1-2 degrees, aligning with historical May climatology where Central Park lows average 55-57°F. Resolution awaits the final daily climatological report, though data corrections are exceedingly rare post-preliminary verification; only a confirmed measurement error could shift this outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTempérature la plus basse à New York le 14 mai ?
Température la plus basse à New York le 14 mai ?
56-57 °F 100.0%
45°F ou moins <1%
46-47°F <1%
48-49°F <1%
$21,412 Vol.
$21,412 Vol.
14 mai 2026
45°F ou moins
Non
46-47°F
Non
48-49°F
Non
50-51°F
Non
52-53°F
Non
54-55°F
Non
56-57 °F
Oui
58-59°F
Non
60-61°F
Non
62-63°F
Non
64°F ou plus
Non
56-57 °F 100.0%
45°F ou moins <1%
46-47°F <1%
48-49°F <1%
$21,412 Vol.
$21,412 Vol.
14 mai 2026
45°F ou moins
$869 Vol.
Non
46-47°F
$913 Vol.
Non
48-49°F
$808 Vol.
Non
50-51°F
$1,225 Vol.
Non
52-53°F
$1,028 Vol.
Non
54-55°F
$2,727 Vol.
Non
56-57 °F
$8,374 Vol.
Oui
58-59°F
$2,407 Vol.
Non
60-61°F
$1,248 Vol.
Non
62-63°F
$619 Vol.
Non
64°F ou plus
$1,194 Vol.
Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 56-57°F as the lowest temperature in New York City on May 14, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by official National Weather Service observations from the Central Park ASOS station (KNYC), which recorded the daily minimum in that range. Preceding 48-hour forecasts from NOAA models and NWS guidance had centered on 54-55°F with tight ensemble spreads, but actual conditions—featuring partly cloudy skies, light winds, and dew points around 45°F—yielded a warmer overnight low by 1-2 degrees, aligning with historical May climatology where Central Park lows average 55-57°F. Resolution awaits the final daily climatological report, though data corrections are exceedingly rare post-preliminary verification; only a confirmed measurement error could shift this outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$21,412Date de fin
14 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 56-57°F as the lowest temperature in New York City on May 14, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by official National Weather Service observations from the Central Park ASOS station (KNYC), which recorded the daily minimum in that range. Preceding 48-hour forecasts from NOAA models and NWS guidance had centered on 54-55°F with tight ensemble spreads, but actual conditions—featuring partly cloudy skies, light winds, and dew points around 45°F—yielded a warmer overnight low by 1-2 degrees, aligning with historical May climatology where Central Park lows average 55-57°F. Resolution awaits the final daily climatological report, though data corrections are exceedingly rare post-preliminary verification; only a confirmed measurement error could shift this outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$21,412Date de fin
14 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 56-57°F as the lowest temperature in New York City on May 14, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by official National Weather Service observations from the Central Park ASOS station (KNYC), which recorded the daily minimum in that range. Preceding 48-hour forecasts from NOAA models and NWS guidance had centered on 54-55°F with tight ensemble spreads, but actual conditions—featuring partly cloudy skies, light winds, and dew points around 45°F—yielded a warmer overnight low by 1-2 degrees, aligning with historical May climatology where Central Park lows average 55-57°F. Resolution awaits the final daily climatological report, though data corrections are exceedingly rare post-preliminary verification; only a confirmed measurement error could shift this outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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