Global seismic monitoring by the USGS indicates typical background rates of one to two magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes per week worldwide, consistent with the market-implied 86 percent likelihood for exactly one event during the May 11–17 window. No large aftershock sequences or unusual clustering along major subduction zones or continental faults has appeared in preliminary data through May 16, keeping probabilities for two or more events low at 15.5 percent. Traders weigh this steady activity against the inherent variability in tectonic release, where isolated deep-focus or strike-slip events can still push the count higher before the period closes. Resolution hinges on final USGS catalog verification of confirmed magnitudes and locations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
1 81%
2 18%
3 3.3%
0 <1%
$49,397 Vol.
$49,397 Vol.
17 mai 2026
0
<1%
1
81%
2
18%
3
3%
4
<1%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
1 81%
2 18%
3 3.3%
0 <1%
$49,397 Vol.
$49,397 Vol.
17 mai 2026
0
$33,480 Vol.
<1%
1
$4,840 Vol.
81%
2
$2,756 Vol.
18%
3
$1,878 Vol.
3%
4
$3,435 Vol.
<1%
5
$1,420 Vol.
<1%
>5
$1,588 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic monitoring by the USGS indicates typical background rates of one to two magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes per week worldwide, consistent with the market-implied 86 percent likelihood for exactly one event during the May 11–17 window. No large aftershock sequences or unusual clustering along major subduction zones or continental faults has appeared in preliminary data through May 16, keeping probabilities for two or more events low at 15.5 percent. Traders weigh this steady activity against the inherent variability in tectonic release, where isolated deep-focus or strike-slip events can still push the count higher before the period closes. Resolution hinges on final USGS catalog verification of confirmed magnitudes and locations.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Marché ouvert : May 9, 2026, 10:50 AM ET
Volume
$49,397Date de fin
17 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 9, 2026, 10:50 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic monitoring by the USGS indicates typical background rates of one to two magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes per week worldwide, consistent with the market-implied 86 percent likelihood for exactly one event during the May 11–17 window. No large aftershock sequences or unusual clustering along major subduction zones or continental faults has appeared in preliminary data through May 16, keeping probabilities for two or more events low at 15.5 percent. Traders weigh this steady activity against the inherent variability in tectonic release, where isolated deep-focus or strike-slip events can still push the count higher before the period closes. Resolution hinges on final USGS catalog verification of confirmed magnitudes and locations.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$49,397Date de fin
17 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 9, 2026, 10:50 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismic monitoring by the USGS indicates typical background rates of one to two magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes per week worldwide, consistent with the market-implied 86 percent likelihood for exactly one event during the May 11–17 window. No large aftershock sequences or unusual clustering along major subduction zones or continental faults has appeared in preliminary data through May 16, keeping probabilities for two or more events low at 15.5 percent. Traders weigh this steady activity against the inherent variability in tectonic release, where isolated deep-focus or strike-slip events can still push the count higher before the period closes. Resolution hinges on final USGS catalog verification of confirmed magnitudes and locations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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