NOAA’s August 2026 update maintains a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season forecast, projecting just 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) through November amid El Niño influences and reduced atmospheric conditions that suppress intensification. With only three named storms recorded so far and none yet reaching hurricane strength, official model consensus points to limited opportunities for systems to reach the 130+ mph sustained winds required for Category 4 status on the Saffir-Simpson scale before landfall. Historical patterns show such intense U.S. strikes occur in roughly one-third of seasons, but the current outlook’s low Accumulated Cyclone Energy range and below-average landfall probabilities for majors reinforce trader consensus favoring “No” at 83.5% implied odds. The peak period remains, yet any late-season shift would require rapid model revisions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourUn ouragan de catégorie 4 touchera-t-il terre aux États-Unis avant 2027 ?
Un ouragan de catégorie 4 touchera-t-il terre aux États-Unis avant 2027 ?
Oui
16% chance
$340,136 Vol.
$340,136 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
16% chance
$340,136 Vol.
$340,136 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA’s August 2026 update maintains a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season forecast, projecting just 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) through November amid El Niño influences and reduced atmospheric conditions that suppress intensification. With only three named storms recorded so far and none yet reaching hurricane strength, official model consensus points to limited opportunities for systems to reach the 130+ mph sustained winds required for Category 4 status on the Saffir-Simpson scale before landfall. Historical patterns show such intense U.S. strikes occur in roughly one-third of seasons, but the current outlook’s low Accumulated Cyclone Energy range and below-average landfall probabilities for majors reinforce trader consensus favoring “No” at 83.5% implied odds. The peak period remains, yet any late-season shift would require rapid model revisions.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Marché ouvert : Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$340,136Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA’s August 2026 update maintains a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season forecast, projecting just 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) through November amid El Niño influences and reduced atmospheric conditions that suppress intensification. With only three named storms recorded so far and none yet reaching hurricane strength, official model consensus points to limited opportunities for systems to reach the 130+ mph sustained winds required for Category 4 status on the Saffir-Simpson scale before landfall. Historical patterns show such intense U.S. strikes occur in roughly one-third of seasons, but the current outlook’s low Accumulated Cyclone Energy range and below-average landfall probabilities for majors reinforce trader consensus favoring “No” at 83.5% implied odds. The peak period remains, yet any late-season shift would require rapid model revisions.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$340,136Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NOAA’s August 2026 update maintains a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season forecast, projecting just 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) through November amid El Niño influences and reduced atmospheric conditions that suppress intensification. With only three named storms recorded so far and none yet reaching hurricane strength, official model consensus points to limited opportunities for systems to reach the 130+ mph sustained winds required for Category 4 status on the Saffir-Simpson scale before landfall. Historical patterns show such intense U.S. strikes occur in roughly one-third of seasons, but the current outlook’s low Accumulated Cyclone Energy range and below-average landfall probabilities for majors reinforce trader consensus favoring “No” at 83.5% implied odds. The peak period remains, yet any late-season shift would require rapid model revisions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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