Subdued seasonal forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season currently anchor trader sentiment favoring a 61.5% implied probability that no Category 4 hurricane reaches the U.S. coast before 2027. Colorado State University’s April outlook projects only 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major systems overall, translating to a 32% chance of any Category 3+ landfall along the continental U.S.—well below the long-term 43% average—primarily because a developing El Niño is expected to strengthen vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. Warmer western Atlantic sea-surface temperatures provide limited upside potential for intensification, yet no tropical cyclones have formed as of mid-May. NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook, due May 21, and subsequent model runs will offer the next key data points for assessing whether conditions shift toward the higher end of historical Cat 4 landfall frequency.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourUn ouragan de catégorie 4 touchera-t-il terre aux États-Unis avant 2027 ?
Un ouragan de catégorie 4 touchera-t-il terre aux États-Unis avant 2027 ?
Oui
$327,420 Vol.
$327,420 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$327,420 Vol.
$327,420 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Subdued seasonal forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season currently anchor trader sentiment favoring a 61.5% implied probability that no Category 4 hurricane reaches the U.S. coast before 2027. Colorado State University’s April outlook projects only 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major systems overall, translating to a 32% chance of any Category 3+ landfall along the continental U.S.—well below the long-term 43% average—primarily because a developing El Niño is expected to strengthen vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. Warmer western Atlantic sea-surface temperatures provide limited upside potential for intensification, yet no tropical cyclones have formed as of mid-May. NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook, due May 21, and subsequent model runs will offer the next key data points for assessing whether conditions shift toward the higher end of historical Cat 4 landfall frequency.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Marché ouvert : Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$327,420Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Subdued seasonal forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season currently anchor trader sentiment favoring a 61.5% implied probability that no Category 4 hurricane reaches the U.S. coast before 2027. Colorado State University’s April outlook projects only 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major systems overall, translating to a 32% chance of any Category 3+ landfall along the continental U.S.—well below the long-term 43% average—primarily because a developing El Niño is expected to strengthen vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. Warmer western Atlantic sea-surface temperatures provide limited upside potential for intensification, yet no tropical cyclones have formed as of mid-May. NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook, due May 21, and subsequent model runs will offer the next key data points for assessing whether conditions shift toward the higher end of historical Cat 4 landfall frequency.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$327,420Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Subdued seasonal forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season currently anchor trader sentiment favoring a 61.5% implied probability that no Category 4 hurricane reaches the U.S. coast before 2027. Colorado State University’s April outlook projects only 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major systems overall, translating to a 32% chance of any Category 3+ landfall along the continental U.S.—well below the long-term 43% average—primarily because a developing El Niño is expected to strengthen vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. Warmer western Atlantic sea-surface temperatures provide limited upside potential for intensification, yet no tropical cyclones have formed as of mid-May. NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook, due May 21, and subsequent model runs will offer the next key data points for assessing whether conditions shift toward the higher end of historical Cat 4 landfall frequency.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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