A strengthening El Niño event and associated atmospheric conditions have driven NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts for a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season, with only 0–2 major hurricanes expected and sharply reduced odds of U.S. landfalls. As of mid-August, just three weak tropical storms have formed, yielding zero hurricanes and well below historical averages for accumulated cyclone energy. These factors, combined with historical patterns showing Cat 4+ systems require sustained favorable steering and intensification windows, underpin the market’s 84.5% implied probability that none reach Category 4 intensity at landfall before 2027. Updated September model runs and any late-season steering patterns remain key variables that could alter consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourUn ouragan de catégorie 4 touchera-t-il terre aux États-Unis avant 2027 ?
Un ouragan de catégorie 4 touchera-t-il terre aux États-Unis avant 2027 ?
Oui
16% chance
$340,569 Vol.
$340,569 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
Oui
16% chance
$340,569 Vol.
$340,569 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.A strengthening El Niño event and associated atmospheric conditions have driven NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts for a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season, with only 0–2 major hurricanes expected and sharply reduced odds of U.S. landfalls. As of mid-August, just three weak tropical storms have formed, yielding zero hurricanes and well below historical averages for accumulated cyclone energy. These factors, combined with historical patterns showing Cat 4+ systems require sustained favorable steering and intensification windows, underpin the market’s 84.5% implied probability that none reach Category 4 intensity at landfall before 2027. Updated September model runs and any late-season steering patterns remain key variables that could alter consensus.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Marché ouvert : Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$340,569Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.A strengthening El Niño event and associated atmospheric conditions have driven NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts for a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season, with only 0–2 major hurricanes expected and sharply reduced odds of U.S. landfalls. As of mid-August, just three weak tropical storms have formed, yielding zero hurricanes and well below historical averages for accumulated cyclone energy. These factors, combined with historical patterns showing Cat 4+ systems require sustained favorable steering and intensification windows, underpin the market’s 84.5% implied probability that none reach Category 4 intensity at landfall before 2027. Updated September model runs and any late-season steering patterns remain key variables that could alter consensus.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$340,569Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A strengthening El Niño event and associated atmospheric conditions have driven NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts for a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season, with only 0–2 major hurricanes expected and sharply reduced odds of U.S. landfalls. As of mid-August, just three weak tropical storms have formed, yielding zero hurricanes and well below historical averages for accumulated cyclone energy. These factors, combined with historical patterns showing Cat 4+ systems require sustained favorable steering and intensification windows, underpin the market’s 84.5% implied probability that none reach Category 4 intensity at landfall before 2027. Updated September model runs and any late-season steering patterns remain key variables that could alter consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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