NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic season, which runs through November 30 and is the only period before 2027, project below-normal activity driven by emerging El Niño conditions that elevate vertical wind shear across the main development region. Official outlooks call for 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes, and just 1–3 major hurricanes (Category 3–5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), below 1991–2020 averages, with CSU’s June update lowering totals further to 11 storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 majors while explicitly assigning below-average U.S. major-hurricane landfall odds. Early-season conditions align with historical analogs featuring suppressed intensification, and no observational data yet contradict the consensus that Category 4 systems capable of U.S. landfall remain unlikely.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
$333,125 Vol.
$333,125 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
$333,125 Vol.
$333,125 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic season, which runs through November 30 and is the only period before 2027, project below-normal activity driven by emerging El Niño conditions that elevate vertical wind shear across the main development region. Official outlooks call for 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes, and just 1–3 major hurricanes (Category 3–5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), below 1991–2020 averages, with CSU’s June update lowering totals further to 11 storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 majors while explicitly assigning below-average U.S. major-hurricane landfall odds. Early-season conditions align with historical analogs featuring suppressed intensification, and no observational data yet contradict the consensus that Category 4 systems capable of U.S. landfall remain unlikely.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Marché ouvert : Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$333,125Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic season, which runs through November 30 and is the only period before 2027, project below-normal activity driven by emerging El Niño conditions that elevate vertical wind shear across the main development region. Official outlooks call for 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes, and just 1–3 major hurricanes (Category 3–5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), below 1991–2020 averages, with CSU’s June update lowering totals further to 11 storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 majors while explicitly assigning below-average U.S. major-hurricane landfall odds. Early-season conditions align with historical analogs featuring suppressed intensification, and no observational data yet contradict the consensus that Category 4 systems capable of U.S. landfall remain unlikely.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$333,125Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic season, which runs through November 30 and is the only period before 2027, project below-normal activity driven by emerging El Niño conditions that elevate vertical wind shear across the main development region. Official outlooks call for 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes, and just 1–3 major hurricanes (Category 3–5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), below 1991–2020 averages, with CSU’s June update lowering totals further to 11 storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 majors while explicitly assigning below-average U.S. major-hurricane landfall odds. Early-season conditions align with historical analogs featuring suppressed intensification, and no observational data yet contradict the consensus that Category 4 systems capable of U.S. landfall remain unlikely.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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