The near-certain trader consensus against a Category 5 hurricane making US landfall before 2027 reflects the historical rarity of such events, with National Hurricane Center records showing only a handful since 1900 and none since Hurricane Michael in 2018. In the 2026 Atlantic season, current NOAA observations indicate moderating sea surface temperatures and increasing wind shear across the main development region, conditions that suppress the sustained low-shear environment and rapid intensification needed to reach Saffir-Simpson Category 5 intensity before landfall. Ensemble forecast models show limited windows for major hurricanes to form and track toward US coasts at peak strength through November. An atypical late-season system could still intensify rapidly under shifting steering patterns, but climatological baselines and model consensus keep that pathway narrow.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourUn ouragan de catégorie 5 touchera-t-il terre aux États-Unis avant 2027 ?
Un ouragan de catégorie 5 touchera-t-il terre aux États-Unis avant 2027 ?
Oui
2% chance
$142,002 Vol.
$142,002 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
2% chance
$142,002 Vol.
$142,002 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The near-certain trader consensus against a Category 5 hurricane making US landfall before 2027 reflects the historical rarity of such events, with National Hurricane Center records showing only a handful since 1900 and none since Hurricane Michael in 2018. In the 2026 Atlantic season, current NOAA observations indicate moderating sea surface temperatures and increasing wind shear across the main development region, conditions that suppress the sustained low-shear environment and rapid intensification needed to reach Saffir-Simpson Category 5 intensity before landfall. Ensemble forecast models show limited windows for major hurricanes to form and track toward US coasts at peak strength through November. An atypical late-season system could still intensify rapidly under shifting steering patterns, but climatological baselines and model consensus keep that pathway narrow.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Marché ouvert : Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$142,002Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The near-certain trader consensus against a Category 5 hurricane making US landfall before 2027 reflects the historical rarity of such events, with National Hurricane Center records showing only a handful since 1900 and none since Hurricane Michael in 2018. In the 2026 Atlantic season, current NOAA observations indicate moderating sea surface temperatures and increasing wind shear across the main development region, conditions that suppress the sustained low-shear environment and rapid intensification needed to reach Saffir-Simpson Category 5 intensity before landfall. Ensemble forecast models show limited windows for major hurricanes to form and track toward US coasts at peak strength through November. An atypical late-season system could still intensify rapidly under shifting steering patterns, but climatological baselines and model consensus keep that pathway narrow.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$142,002Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...The near-certain trader consensus against a Category 5 hurricane making US landfall before 2027 reflects the historical rarity of such events, with National Hurricane Center records showing only a handful since 1900 and none since Hurricane Michael in 2018. In the 2026 Atlantic season, current NOAA observations indicate moderating sea surface temperatures and increasing wind shear across the main development region, conditions that suppress the sustained low-shear environment and rapid intensification needed to reach Saffir-Simpson Category 5 intensity before landfall. Ensemble forecast models show limited windows for major hurricanes to form and track toward US coasts at peak strength through November. An atypical late-season system could still intensify rapidly under shifting steering patterns, but climatological baselines and model consensus keep that pathway narrow.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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