Strong El Niño conditions, now forecast to become very strong by fall 2026 with sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C in the Niño-3.4 region, are suppressing Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing wind shear and stabilizing the atmosphere. NOAA’s August update assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season, projecting just 0-2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) through November, well below the 1991-2020 average of three. Category 5 landfalls on the U.S. coastline remain exceptionally rare even in active years—only five have occurred since 1928—and the current low accumulated cyclone energy outlook plus early-season weakness further reduce odds. Traders’ 88% consensus on “No” aligns with these official model runs and climatological baselines ahead of the September peak.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourUn ouragan de catégorie 5 touchera-t-il terre aux États-Unis avant 2027 ?
Un ouragan de catégorie 5 touchera-t-il terre aux États-Unis avant 2027 ?
Oui
12% chance
$139,387 Vol.
$139,387 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
12% chance
$139,387 Vol.
$139,387 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Strong El Niño conditions, now forecast to become very strong by fall 2026 with sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C in the Niño-3.4 region, are suppressing Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing wind shear and stabilizing the atmosphere. NOAA’s August update assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season, projecting just 0-2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) through November, well below the 1991-2020 average of three. Category 5 landfalls on the U.S. coastline remain exceptionally rare even in active years—only five have occurred since 1928—and the current low accumulated cyclone energy outlook plus early-season weakness further reduce odds. Traders’ 88% consensus on “No” aligns with these official model runs and climatological baselines ahead of the September peak.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Marché ouvert : Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$139,387Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Strong El Niño conditions, now forecast to become very strong by fall 2026 with sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C in the Niño-3.4 region, are suppressing Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing wind shear and stabilizing the atmosphere. NOAA’s August update assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season, projecting just 0-2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) through November, well below the 1991-2020 average of three. Category 5 landfalls on the U.S. coastline remain exceptionally rare even in active years—only five have occurred since 1928—and the current low accumulated cyclone energy outlook plus early-season weakness further reduce odds. Traders’ 88% consensus on “No” aligns with these official model runs and climatological baselines ahead of the September peak.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$139,387Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong El Niño conditions, now forecast to become very strong by fall 2026 with sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C in the Niño-3.4 region, are suppressing Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing wind shear and stabilizing the atmosphere. NOAA’s August update assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season, projecting just 0-2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) through November, well below the 1991-2020 average of three. Category 5 landfalls on the U.S. coastline remain exceptionally rare even in active years—only five have occurred since 1928—and the current low accumulated cyclone energy outlook plus early-season weakness further reduce odds. Traders’ 88% consensus on “No” aligns with these official model runs and climatological baselines ahead of the September peak.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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