**Strong El Niño conditions have suppressed Atlantic hurricane activity throughout the 2026 season, producing only five named storms through mid-September with zero hurricanes—the latest start in the satellite era (since 1966).** High vertical wind shear, drier mid-level air, and a more stable atmosphere tied to the intensifying El Niño have repeatedly prevented tropical storms from organizing and strengthening, breaking prior records around September 11. As of September 20, Tropical Storm Fay (formerly TD Six) formed southwest of the Azores but sits in an increasingly hostile environment of stronger shear and cooler waters. Official National Hurricane Center guidance and model consensus indicate only a brief window for possible minor strengthening, with most forecasts keeping it below hurricane intensity (74 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) before it weakens. No other systems are expected to develop in the main development region or elsewhere before month-end. These factors explain the dominant market-implied probability (75.5%) that September closes without an Atlantic hurricane, alongside the modest 24% chance for formation between September 21–25 if Fay or a new disturbance briefly organizes against the odds. Historical analogs (e.g., 1994, 1962) show that such quiet Septembers are rare but consistent with strong El Niño years, and upcoming model runs plus NHC updates will be key near-term drivers of any shifts in trader sentiment.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourQuand le premier ouragan se formera-t-il dans l'Atlantique en 2026 ?
Quand le premier ouragan se formera-t-il dans l'Atlantique en 2026 ?
Aucun ouragan atlantique ne se formera en septembre 2026 76%
21 septembre au 25 septembre 2026 24%
26 septembre au 30 septembre 2026 2.6%
16 au 20 septembre 2026 1.6%
$29,691 Vol.
$29,691 Vol.
15 sept. 2026
11 septembre au 15 septembre 2026
1%
16 au 20 septembre 2026
2%
21 septembre au 25 septembre 2026
24%
26 septembre au 30 septembre 2026
3%
Aucun ouragan atlantique ne se formera en septembre 2026
76%
Aucun ouragan atlantique ne se formera en septembre 2026 76%
21 septembre au 25 septembre 2026 24%
26 septembre au 30 septembre 2026 2.6%
16 au 20 septembre 2026 1.6%
$29,691 Vol.
$29,691 Vol.
15 sept. 2026
11 septembre au 15 septembre 2026
$1,145 Vol.
1%
16 au 20 septembre 2026
$10,135 Vol.
2%
21 septembre au 25 septembre 2026
$6,812 Vol.
24%
26 septembre au 30 septembre 2026
$2,708 Vol.
3%
Aucun ouragan atlantique ne se formera en septembre 2026
$8,279 Vol.
76%
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/**Strong El Niño conditions have suppressed Atlantic hurricane activity throughout the 2026 season, producing only five named storms through mid-September with zero hurricanes—the latest start in the satellite era (since 1966).** High vertical wind shear, drier mid-level air, and a more stable atmosphere tied to the intensifying El Niño have repeatedly prevented tropical storms from organizing and strengthening, breaking prior records around September 11.
As of September 20, Tropical Storm Fay (formerly TD Six) formed southwest of the Azores but sits in an increasingly hostile environment of stronger shear and cooler waters. Official National Hurricane Center guidance and model consensus indicate only a brief window for possible minor strengthening, with most forecasts keeping it below hurricane intensity (74 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) before it weakens. No other systems are expected to develop in the main development region or elsewhere before month-end.
These factors explain the dominant market-implied probability (75.5%) that September closes without an Atlantic hurricane, alongside the modest 24% chance for formation between September 21–25 if Fay or a new disturbance briefly organizes against the odds. Historical analogs (e.g., 1994, 1962) show that such quiet Septembers are rare but consistent with strong El Niño years, and upcoming model runs plus NHC updates will be key near-term drivers of any shifts in trader sentiment.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Marché ouvert : Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ET
Volume
$29,691Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/**Strong El Niño conditions have suppressed Atlantic hurricane activity throughout the 2026 season, producing only five named storms through mid-September with zero hurricanes—the latest start in the satellite era (since 1966).** High vertical wind shear, drier mid-level air, and a more stable atmosphere tied to the intensifying El Niño have repeatedly prevented tropical storms from organizing and strengthening, breaking prior records around September 11.
As of September 20, Tropical Storm Fay (formerly TD Six) formed southwest of the Azores but sits in an increasingly hostile environment of stronger shear and cooler waters. Official National Hurricane Center guidance and model consensus indicate only a brief window for possible minor strengthening, with most forecasts keeping it below hurricane intensity (74 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) before it weakens. No other systems are expected to develop in the main development region or elsewhere before month-end.
These factors explain the dominant market-implied probability (75.5%) that September closes without an Atlantic hurricane, alongside the modest 24% chance for formation between September 21–25 if Fay or a new disturbance briefly organizes against the odds. Historical analogs (e.g., 1994, 1962) show that such quiet Septembers are rare but consistent with strong El Niño years, and upcoming model runs plus NHC updates will be key near-term drivers of any shifts in trader sentiment.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Volume
$29,691Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...**Strong El Niño conditions have suppressed Atlantic hurricane activity throughout the 2026 season, producing only five named storms through mid-September with zero hurricanes—the latest start in the satellite era (since 1966).** High vertical wind shear, drier mid-level air, and a more stable atmosphere tied to the intensifying El Niño have repeatedly prevented tropical storms from organizing and strengthening, breaking prior records around September 11. As of September 20, Tropical Storm Fay (formerly TD Six) formed southwest of the Azores but sits in an increasingly hostile environment of stronger shear and cooler waters. Official National Hurricane Center guidance and model consensus indicate only a brief window for possible minor strengthening, with most forecasts keeping it below hurricane intensity (74 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) before it weakens. No other systems are expected to develop in the main development region or elsewhere before month-end. These factors explain the dominant market-implied probability (75.5%) that September closes without an Atlantic hurricane, alongside the modest 24% chance for formation between September 21–25 if Fay or a new disturbance briefly organizes against the odds. Historical analogs (e.g., 1994, 1962) show that such quiet Septembers are rare but consistent with strong El Niño years, and upcoming model runs plus NHC updates will be key near-term drivers of any shifts in trader sentiment.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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