Elevated mosquito surveillance data, with over 1,700 West Nile virus-positive pools detected citywide by early September—nearly double the prior year's pace at comparable dates—has positioned 20–34 neuroinvasive cases as the market's leading outcome at 54.5% implied probability. NYC Health Department reports show 18 confirmed neuroinvasive cases so far in 2026, consistent with the recent 2022–2025 annual average of 31 (range 16–46) after an earlier baseline near 16. Peak transmission typically occurs through August–October via Culex mosquitoes, with only about 1 in 150 infections progressing to neuroinvasive disease; ongoing vector control and cooler late-season conditions could moderate totals, while sustained high positivity rates support the 35–49 bracket at 26.5%. Final CDC-aligned counts will resolve the market after October surveillance closes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de cas de maladies neuroinvasives du Nil occidental seront signalés chez les résidents de New York en 2026 ?
Combien de cas de maladies neuroinvasives du Nil occidental seront signalés chez les résidents de New York en 2026 ?
20 à 34 55%
35 à 49 27%
50 ou plus 8.1%
Moins de 20 6.4%
$12,490 Vol.
$12,490 Vol.
31 mars 2027
Moins de 20
6%
20 à 34
55%
35 à 49
27%
50 ou plus
8%
20 à 34 55%
35 à 49 27%
50 ou plus 8.1%
Moins de 20 6.4%
$12,490 Vol.
$12,490 Vol.
31 mars 2027
Moins de 20
$3,999 Vol.
6%
20 à 34
$5,110 Vol.
55%
35 à 49
$2,784 Vol.
27%
50 ou plus
$596 Vol.
8%
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.Elevated mosquito surveillance data, with over 1,700 West Nile virus-positive pools detected citywide by early September—nearly double the prior year's pace at comparable dates—has positioned 20–34 neuroinvasive cases as the market's leading outcome at 54.5% implied probability. NYC Health Department reports show 18 confirmed neuroinvasive cases so far in 2026, consistent with the recent 2022–2025 annual average of 31 (range 16–46) after an earlier baseline near 16. Peak transmission typically occurs through August–October via Culex mosquitoes, with only about 1 in 150 infections progressing to neuroinvasive disease; ongoing vector control and cooler late-season conditions could moderate totals, while sustained high positivity rates support the 35–49 bracket at 26.5%. Final CDC-aligned counts will resolve the market after October surveillance closes.
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Marché ouvert : Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$12,490Date de fin
31 mars 2027Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.pageRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.Elevated mosquito surveillance data, with over 1,700 West Nile virus-positive pools detected citywide by early September—nearly double the prior year's pace at comparable dates—has positioned 20–34 neuroinvasive cases as the market's leading outcome at 54.5% implied probability. NYC Health Department reports show 18 confirmed neuroinvasive cases so far in 2026, consistent with the recent 2022–2025 annual average of 31 (range 16–46) after an earlier baseline near 16. Peak transmission typically occurs through August–October via Culex mosquitoes, with only about 1 in 150 infections progressing to neuroinvasive disease; ongoing vector control and cooler late-season conditions could moderate totals, while sustained high positivity rates support the 35–49 bracket at 26.5%. Final CDC-aligned counts will resolve the market after October surveillance closes.
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Volume
$12,490Date de fin
31 mars 2027Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.pageRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Elevated mosquito surveillance data, with over 1,700 West Nile virus-positive pools detected citywide by early September—nearly double the prior year's pace at comparable dates—has positioned 20–34 neuroinvasive cases as the market's leading outcome at 54.5% implied probability. NYC Health Department reports show 18 confirmed neuroinvasive cases so far in 2026, consistent with the recent 2022–2025 annual average of 31 (range 16–46) after an earlier baseline near 16. Peak transmission typically occurs through August–October via Culex mosquitoes, with only about 1 in 150 infections progressing to neuroinvasive disease; ongoing vector control and cooler late-season conditions could moderate totals, while sustained high positivity rates support the 35–49 bracket at 26.5%. Final CDC-aligned counts will resolve the market after October surveillance closes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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