Recent model consensus and official forecasts from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency and China Meteorological Administration highlight rapid intensification of Typhoon Saudel over unusually warm western Pacific waters near 30°C with low vertical wind shear, positioning it for peak intensity near very strong or violent levels by 23–24 August. As of 21 August, the system has already strengthened from tropical storm to severe tropical storm or typhoon status with central pressures falling toward 975 hPa and sustained winds increasing, consistent with historical analogs of rapid deepening in similar environments. These conditions explain the dominant market-implied odds favoring violent or very strong typhoon outcomes, while path uncertainty after the Ryukyu Islands introduces limited downside risk to lower categories. Updated model runs and satellite observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourQuelle sera la force de la tempête tropicale Saudel ?
Quelle sera la force de la tempête tropicale Saudel ?
Typhon violent 61%
Très puissant typhon 30%
Violente tempête tropicale <1%
Typhon <1%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 août 2026
Tempête tropicale
<1%
Violente tempête tropicale
1%
Typhon
1%
Très puissant typhon
30%
Typhon violent
61%
Typhon violent 61%
Très puissant typhon 30%
Violente tempête tropicale <1%
Typhon <1%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 août 2026
Tempête tropicale
$550 Vol.
<1%
Violente tempête tropicale
$435 Vol.
1%
Typhon
$623 Vol.
1%
Très puissant typhon
$672 Vol.
30%
Typhon violent
$1,544 Vol.
61%
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Recent model consensus and official forecasts from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency and China Meteorological Administration highlight rapid intensification of Typhoon Saudel over unusually warm western Pacific waters near 30°C with low vertical wind shear, positioning it for peak intensity near very strong or violent levels by 23–24 August. As of 21 August, the system has already strengthened from tropical storm to severe tropical storm or typhoon status with central pressures falling toward 975 hPa and sustained winds increasing, consistent with historical analogs of rapid deepening in similar environments. These conditions explain the dominant market-implied odds favoring violent or very strong typhoon outcomes, while path uncertainty after the Ryukyu Islands introduces limited downside risk to lower categories. Updated model runs and satellite observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ET
Volume
$3,823Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Recent model consensus and official forecasts from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency and China Meteorological Administration highlight rapid intensification of Typhoon Saudel over unusually warm western Pacific waters near 30°C with low vertical wind shear, positioning it for peak intensity near very strong or violent levels by 23–24 August. As of 21 August, the system has already strengthened from tropical storm to severe tropical storm or typhoon status with central pressures falling toward 975 hPa and sustained winds increasing, consistent with historical analogs of rapid deepening in similar environments. These conditions explain the dominant market-implied odds favoring violent or very strong typhoon outcomes, while path uncertainty after the Ryukyu Islands introduces limited downside risk to lower categories. Updated model runs and satellite observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Volume
$3,823Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus and official forecasts from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency and China Meteorological Administration highlight rapid intensification of Typhoon Saudel over unusually warm western Pacific waters near 30°C with low vertical wind shear, positioning it for peak intensity near very strong or violent levels by 23–24 August. As of 21 August, the system has already strengthened from tropical storm to severe tropical storm or typhoon status with central pressures falling toward 975 hPa and sustained winds increasing, consistent with historical analogs of rapid deepening in similar environments. These conditions explain the dominant market-implied odds favoring violent or very strong typhoon outcomes, while path uncertainty after the Ryukyu Islands introduces limited downside risk to lower categories. Updated model runs and satellite observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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