Forecast models from major agencies including the ECMWF and GFS currently converge on a Moscow high of 22–23 °C for August 23, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward those two outcomes. Late-August climatology for the region centers near 21–23 °C, and the absence of strong high-pressure blocking or warm advection from the south has kept projected maxima close to seasonal norms rather than the upper-20s occasionally seen earlier in the month. Recent model runs show only minor spread, with ensemble means stable over the past 48 hours and no significant Atlantic low-pressure intrusion expected before the 23rd. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 23 °C (50 %) and 22 °C (31.5 %), reflecting the tight consensus around these values and limited upside risk for 24 °C or higher under current steering patterns.