The prevailing southwest monsoon, or habagat, over Luzon drives the closely matched market odds for Manila's August 21 high temperature, with PAGASA forecasting a 26–32°C range and 40% rain chance amid persistent cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms. This setup limits daytime heating through reduced solar insolation while allowing brief afternoon breaks that could push peaks toward 32–33°C, consistent with the leading 26.5% and 24% probabilities. Historical August baselines near 30–31°C and current model consensus support this tight clustering around 31–32°C, though short-term shifts in monsoon strength or localized convection introduce genuine uncertainty ahead of updated PAGASA and global model runs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Manille le 21 août ?
La température la plus élevée à Manille le 21 août ?
31°C 29%
32°C 27%
33°C 24%
30°C 15%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
21 août 2026
26°C ou moins
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
5%
29°C
5%
30°C
15%
31°C
29%
32°C
27%
33°C
24%
34°C
2%
35°C
<1%
36°C ou plus
<1%
31°C 29%
32°C 27%
33°C 24%
30°C 15%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
21 août 2026
26°C ou moins
$121 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$172 Vol.
1%
28°C
$11 Vol.
5%
29°C
$6 Vol.
5%
30°C
$0 Vol.
15%
31°C
$0 Vol.
29%
32°C
$8 Vol.
27%
33°C
$0 Vol.
24%
34°C
$50 Vol.
2%
35°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
36°C ou plus
$7 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The prevailing southwest monsoon, or habagat, over Luzon drives the closely matched market odds for Manila's August 21 high temperature, with PAGASA forecasting a 26–32°C range and 40% rain chance amid persistent cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms. This setup limits daytime heating through reduced solar insolation while allowing brief afternoon breaks that could push peaks toward 32–33°C, consistent with the leading 26.5% and 24% probabilities. Historical August baselines near 30–31°C and current model consensus support this tight clustering around 31–32°C, though short-term shifts in monsoon strength or localized convection introduce genuine uncertainty ahead of updated PAGASA and global model runs.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$376Date de fin
21 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The prevailing southwest monsoon, or habagat, over Luzon drives the closely matched market odds for Manila's August 21 high temperature, with PAGASA forecasting a 26–32°C range and 40% rain chance amid persistent cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms. This setup limits daytime heating through reduced solar insolation while allowing brief afternoon breaks that could push peaks toward 32–33°C, consistent with the leading 26.5% and 24% probabilities. Historical August baselines near 30–31°C and current model consensus support this tight clustering around 31–32°C, though short-term shifts in monsoon strength or localized convection introduce genuine uncertainty ahead of updated PAGASA and global model runs.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$376Date de fin
21 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...The prevailing southwest monsoon, or habagat, over Luzon drives the closely matched market odds for Manila's August 21 high temperature, with PAGASA forecasting a 26–32°C range and 40% rain chance amid persistent cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms. This setup limits daytime heating through reduced solar insolation while allowing brief afternoon breaks that could push peaks toward 32–33°C, consistent with the leading 26.5% and 24% probabilities. Historical August baselines near 30–31°C and current model consensus support this tight clustering around 31–32°C, though short-term shifts in monsoon strength or localized convection introduce genuine uncertainty ahead of updated PAGASA and global model runs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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