Recent model consensus from sources including the China Meteorological Administration points to a high near 30–31°C for Shanghai on August 19, consistent with the strong market weighting on those outcomes. Late-summer cooling driven by declining solar insolation and shifting monsoon patterns has lowered daily maxima from earlier August peaks above 35°C, while elevated humidity and scattered showers or thunderstorms can suppress peak readings by limiting surface heating. Ensemble forecasts show limited spread around these values, with only modest upside risk if clearer skies develop; historical climatology places late-August averages near 30–32°C, supporting the current trader-implied distribution centered on 30–31°C.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Shanghai le 19 août ?
La température la plus élevée à Shanghai le 19 août ?
31°C 44%
30°C 29%
32°C 14%
29°C 8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
19 août 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
2%
29°C
8%
30°C
29%
31°C
44%
32°C
14%
33°C
6%
34°C
3%
35°C or higher
4%
31°C 44%
30°C 29%
32°C 14%
29°C 8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
19 août 2026
25°C or below
$5 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$5 Vol.
1%
28°C
$80 Vol.
2%
29°C
$12 Vol.
8%
30°C
$25 Vol.
29%
31°C
$222 Vol.
44%
32°C
$62 Vol.
14%
33°C
$0 Vol.
6%
34°C
$8 Vol.
3%
35°C or higher
$5 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including the China Meteorological Administration points to a high near 30–31°C for Shanghai on August 19, consistent with the strong market weighting on those outcomes. Late-summer cooling driven by declining solar insolation and shifting monsoon patterns has lowered daily maxima from earlier August peaks above 35°C, while elevated humidity and scattered showers or thunderstorms can suppress peak readings by limiting surface heating. Ensemble forecasts show limited spread around these values, with only modest upside risk if clearer skies develop; historical climatology places late-August averages near 30–32°C, supporting the current trader-implied distribution centered on 30–31°C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$429Date de fin
19 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including the China Meteorological Administration points to a high near 30–31°C for Shanghai on August 19, consistent with the strong market weighting on those outcomes. Late-summer cooling driven by declining solar insolation and shifting monsoon patterns has lowered daily maxima from earlier August peaks above 35°C, while elevated humidity and scattered showers or thunderstorms can suppress peak readings by limiting surface heating. Ensemble forecasts show limited spread around these values, with only modest upside risk if clearer skies develop; historical climatology places late-August averages near 30–32°C, supporting the current trader-implied distribution centered on 30–31°C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$429Date de fin
19 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from sources including the China Meteorological Administration points to a high near 30–31°C for Shanghai on August 19, consistent with the strong market weighting on those outcomes. Late-summer cooling driven by declining solar insolation and shifting monsoon patterns has lowered daily maxima from earlier August peaks above 35°C, while elevated humidity and scattered showers or thunderstorms can suppress peak readings by limiting surface heating. Ensemble forecasts show limited spread around these values, with only modest upside risk if clearer skies develop; historical climatology places late-August averages near 30–32°C, supporting the current trader-implied distribution centered on 30–31°C.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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