Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance, showing highs near seasonal norms of 83°F under mostly sunny conditions, underpins the 29% market-implied odds for an 84-85°F peak in New York City on August 17. Ensemble runs cluster tightly in the low-to-mid 80s, with limited heat advection or strong high pressure supporting modest upside to 86-87°F. Key variables include afternoon sea-breeze timing, which can cap temperatures along the coast, variable cloud cover from weak moisture return, and small differences in boundary-layer mixing across models. Traders weigh these against the low probability of 90°F-plus outcomes given the absence of anomalous ridging, while cooler 80°F-or-below scenarios remain possible if marine air arrives earlier than currently projected. Updated NWS and global model runs overnight will likely refine these ranges ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTempérature la plus élevée à New York le 17 août ?
Température la plus élevée à New York le 17 août ?
84-85°F 38%
86-87°F 19%
82-83°F 17%
88-89°F 11%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
17 août 2026
75°F or below
1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
5%
80-81°F
9%
82-83°F
17%
84-85°F
38%
86-87°F
19%
88-89°F
11%
90-91°F
6%
92-93°F
3%
94°F or higher
1%
84-85°F 38%
86-87°F 19%
82-83°F 17%
88-89°F 11%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
17 août 2026
75°F or below
$5 Vol.
1%
76-77°F
$5 Vol.
1%
78-79°F
$47 Vol.
5%
80-81°F
$138 Vol.
9%
82-83°F
$100 Vol.
17%
84-85°F
$230 Vol.
38%
86-87°F
$76 Vol.
19%
88-89°F
$30 Vol.
11%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
6%
92-93°F
$0 Vol.
3%
94°F or higher
$5 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance, showing highs near seasonal norms of 83°F under mostly sunny conditions, underpins the 29% market-implied odds for an 84-85°F peak in New York City on August 17. Ensemble runs cluster tightly in the low-to-mid 80s, with limited heat advection or strong high pressure supporting modest upside to 86-87°F. Key variables include afternoon sea-breeze timing, which can cap temperatures along the coast, variable cloud cover from weak moisture return, and small differences in boundary-layer mixing across models. Traders weigh these against the low probability of 90°F-plus outcomes given the absence of anomalous ridging, while cooler 80°F-or-below scenarios remain possible if marine air arrives earlier than currently projected. Updated NWS and global model runs overnight will likely refine these ranges ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 15, 2026, 9:56 PM ET
Volume
$636Date de fin
17 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 15, 2026, 9:56 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance, showing highs near seasonal norms of 83°F under mostly sunny conditions, underpins the 29% market-implied odds for an 84-85°F peak in New York City on August 17. Ensemble runs cluster tightly in the low-to-mid 80s, with limited heat advection or strong high pressure supporting modest upside to 86-87°F. Key variables include afternoon sea-breeze timing, which can cap temperatures along the coast, variable cloud cover from weak moisture return, and small differences in boundary-layer mixing across models. Traders weigh these against the low probability of 90°F-plus outcomes given the absence of anomalous ridging, while cooler 80°F-or-below scenarios remain possible if marine air arrives earlier than currently projected. Updated NWS and global model runs overnight will likely refine these ranges ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$636Date de fin
17 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 15, 2026, 9:56 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance, showing highs near seasonal norms of 83°F under mostly sunny conditions, underpins the 29% market-implied odds for an 84-85°F peak in New York City on August 17. Ensemble runs cluster tightly in the low-to-mid 80s, with limited heat advection or strong high pressure supporting modest upside to 86-87°F. Key variables include afternoon sea-breeze timing, which can cap temperatures along the coast, variable cloud cover from weak moisture return, and small differences in boundary-layer mixing across models. Traders weigh these against the low probability of 90°F-plus outcomes given the absence of anomalous ridging, while cooler 80°F-or-below scenarios remain possible if marine air arrives earlier than currently projected. Updated NWS and global model runs overnight will likely refine these ranges ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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