Recent JMA seasonal outlooks and global model runs point to a strengthened Pacific High sustaining above-normal warmth across Honshu, positioning Tokyo's August 16 maximum near the long-term average of 30–31°C. Latest short-range guidance from AccuWeather and timeanddate.com indicates a peak around 31°C under partly cloudy skies with possible passing showers, which could cap the daily high by limiting afternoon insolation. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 29°C and 30°C because ensemble spreads show modest uncertainty from cloud cover, urban heat-island variability, and any late-day frontal influence, while historical analogs and current steering patterns make excursions above 32°C or below 28°C less likely before the next model update.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Tokyo le 16 août ?
La température la plus élevée à Tokyo le 16 août ?
30°C 38%
29°C 36%
28°C 16%
31°C 6%
NOUVEAU
$13,205 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$13,205 Vol.
16 août 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
5%
28°C
16%
29°C
36%
30°C
38%
31°C
6%
32°C
3%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
<1%
30°C 38%
29°C 36%
28°C 16%
31°C 6%
NOUVEAU
$13,205 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$13,205 Vol.
16 août 2026
24°C or below
$1,221 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$437 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$518 Vol.
1%
27°C
$1,128 Vol.
5%
28°C
$1,004 Vol.
16%
29°C
$2,172 Vol.
36%
30°C
$2,613 Vol.
38%
31°C
$850 Vol.
6%
32°C
$1,613 Vol.
3%
33°C
$1,304 Vol.
2%
34°C or higher
$345 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA seasonal outlooks and global model runs point to a strengthened Pacific High sustaining above-normal warmth across Honshu, positioning Tokyo's August 16 maximum near the long-term average of 30–31°C. Latest short-range guidance from AccuWeather and timeanddate.com indicates a peak around 31°C under partly cloudy skies with possible passing showers, which could cap the daily high by limiting afternoon insolation. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 29°C and 30°C because ensemble spreads show modest uncertainty from cloud cover, urban heat-island variability, and any late-day frontal influence, while historical analogs and current steering patterns make excursions above 32°C or below 28°C less likely before the next model update.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$13,205Date de fin
16 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA seasonal outlooks and global model runs point to a strengthened Pacific High sustaining above-normal warmth across Honshu, positioning Tokyo's August 16 maximum near the long-term average of 30–31°C. Latest short-range guidance from AccuWeather and timeanddate.com indicates a peak around 31°C under partly cloudy skies with possible passing showers, which could cap the daily high by limiting afternoon insolation. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 29°C and 30°C because ensemble spreads show modest uncertainty from cloud cover, urban heat-island variability, and any late-day frontal influence, while historical analogs and current steering patterns make excursions above 32°C or below 28°C less likely before the next model update.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$13,205Date de fin
16 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent JMA seasonal outlooks and global model runs point to a strengthened Pacific High sustaining above-normal warmth across Honshu, positioning Tokyo's August 16 maximum near the long-term average of 30–31°C. Latest short-range guidance from AccuWeather and timeanddate.com indicates a peak around 31°C under partly cloudy skies with possible passing showers, which could cap the daily high by limiting afternoon insolation. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 29°C and 30°C because ensemble spreads show modest uncertainty from cloud cover, urban heat-island variability, and any late-day frontal influence, while historical analogs and current steering patterns make excursions above 32°C or below 28°C less likely before the next model update.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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