Recent forecasts from multiple models place Chengdu’s August 21 maximum near 31–33 °C, consistent with the market’s leading probabilities for 32 °C (36 %) and 31 °C (22 %). Typical late-summer conditions in the Sichuan Basin feature high humidity, scattered afternoon showers or thunderstorms, and variable cloud cover that caps daytime heating; official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles shows these factors keeping highs below the seasonal extreme of 34–35 °C. Preceding days brought heavier rain on August 18 that cooled the surface, followed by partial clearing on the 19th–20th, allowing modest rebound but not enough for rapid warming. Updated short-range model runs and any new CMA guidance on cloud trends or moisture advection remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift implied odds between the 31–34 °C cluster.