Recent JMA guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a typical late-summer pattern dominated by the Pacific subtropical high, supporting daytime maxima near 31–32 °C in central Tokyo on 21 August, tempered by possible convective cloud cover and isolated thunderstorms that limit full solar heating. High humidity (70–85 %) and the urban heat-island effect add several tenths of a degree to observed readings, yet any increase in low-level moisture or weak frontal passage could cap the peak at 30 °C. With the resolution window only 48 hours away, traders are weighting the latest 00–12 UTC runs and satellite trends that show modest spread between 30–32 °C solutions; further model convergence or updated guidance on afternoon convection will likely narrow the distribution before the market settles.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Tokyo le 21 août ?
La température la plus élevée à Tokyo le 21 août ?
31°C 32%
30°C 26%
32°C 18%
29°C 8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
21 août 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
2%
28°C
3%
29°C
8%
30°C
26%
31°C
32%
32°C
13%
33°C
8%
34°C
4%
35°C or higher
4%
31°C 32%
30°C 26%
32°C 18%
29°C 8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
21 août 2026
25°C or below
$2,145 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$180 Vol.
1%
27°C
$108 Vol.
2%
28°C
$23 Vol.
3%
29°C
$66 Vol.
8%
30°C
$51 Vol.
26%
31°C
$105 Vol.
32%
32°C
$18 Vol.
13%
33°C
$27 Vol.
8%
34°C
$94 Vol.
4%
35°C or higher
$5 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a typical late-summer pattern dominated by the Pacific subtropical high, supporting daytime maxima near 31–32 °C in central Tokyo on 21 August, tempered by possible convective cloud cover and isolated thunderstorms that limit full solar heating. High humidity (70–85 %) and the urban heat-island effect add several tenths of a degree to observed readings, yet any increase in low-level moisture or weak frontal passage could cap the peak at 30 °C. With the resolution window only 48 hours away, traders are weighting the latest 00–12 UTC runs and satellite trends that show modest spread between 30–32 °C solutions; further model convergence or updated guidance on afternoon convection will likely narrow the distribution before the market settles.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$2,824Date de fin
21 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a typical late-summer pattern dominated by the Pacific subtropical high, supporting daytime maxima near 31–32 °C in central Tokyo on 21 August, tempered by possible convective cloud cover and isolated thunderstorms that limit full solar heating. High humidity (70–85 %) and the urban heat-island effect add several tenths of a degree to observed readings, yet any increase in low-level moisture or weak frontal passage could cap the peak at 30 °C. With the resolution window only 48 hours away, traders are weighting the latest 00–12 UTC runs and satellite trends that show modest spread between 30–32 °C solutions; further model convergence or updated guidance on afternoon convection will likely narrow the distribution before the market settles.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,824Date de fin
21 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent JMA guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a typical late-summer pattern dominated by the Pacific subtropical high, supporting daytime maxima near 31–32 °C in central Tokyo on 21 August, tempered by possible convective cloud cover and isolated thunderstorms that limit full solar heating. High humidity (70–85 %) and the urban heat-island effect add several tenths of a degree to observed readings, yet any increase in low-level moisture or weak frontal passage could cap the peak at 30 °C. With the resolution window only 48 hours away, traders are weighting the latest 00–12 UTC runs and satellite trends that show modest spread between 30–32 °C solutions; further model convergence or updated guidance on afternoon convection will likely narrow the distribution before the market settles.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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