The market distribution, with 30°C leading at 32% implied probability followed closely by 29–32°C outcomes, reflects trader assessment of the active southwest monsoon (habagat) expected to deliver widespread cloud cover, showers, and thunderstorms over Manila on August 23. PAGASA outlooks indicate daytime maxima near 29–32°C amid 60–80% rain chances, consistent with typical August climatology of 30–31°C highs moderated by high humidity and frequent convective activity. Key variables include monsoon intensity and timing, which can suppress insolation and cap temperatures below 30°C, versus brief clear spells or urban heat island effects that favor 32°C or higher. Model consensus remains fluid two days out, with resolution hinging on official PAGASA maximum temperature readings for the day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Manille le 23 août ?
La température la plus élevée à Manille le 23 août ?
30°C 32%
31°C 19%
29°C 16%
32°C 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
23 août 2026
25°C ou moins
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
7%
29°C
16%
30°C
32%
31°C
19%
32°C
17%
33°C
11%
34°C
1%
35°C ou plus
1%
30°C 32%
31°C 19%
29°C 16%
32°C 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
23 août 2026
25°C ou moins
$176 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$0 Vol.
1%
27°C
$0 Vol.
1%
28°C
$20 Vol.
7%
29°C
$0 Vol.
16%
30°C
$0 Vol.
32%
31°C
$6 Vol.
19%
32°C
$11 Vol.
17%
33°C
$0 Vol.
11%
34°C
$20 Vol.
1%
35°C ou plus
$20 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market distribution, with 30°C leading at 32% implied probability followed closely by 29–32°C outcomes, reflects trader assessment of the active southwest monsoon (habagat) expected to deliver widespread cloud cover, showers, and thunderstorms over Manila on August 23. PAGASA outlooks indicate daytime maxima near 29–32°C amid 60–80% rain chances, consistent with typical August climatology of 30–31°C highs moderated by high humidity and frequent convective activity. Key variables include monsoon intensity and timing, which can suppress insolation and cap temperatures below 30°C, versus brief clear spells or urban heat island effects that favor 32°C or higher. Model consensus remains fluid two days out, with resolution hinging on official PAGASA maximum temperature readings for the day.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 21, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Volume
$254Date de fin
23 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 21, 2026, 12:59 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market distribution, with 30°C leading at 32% implied probability followed closely by 29–32°C outcomes, reflects trader assessment of the active southwest monsoon (habagat) expected to deliver widespread cloud cover, showers, and thunderstorms over Manila on August 23. PAGASA outlooks indicate daytime maxima near 29–32°C amid 60–80% rain chances, consistent with typical August climatology of 30–31°C highs moderated by high humidity and frequent convective activity. Key variables include monsoon intensity and timing, which can suppress insolation and cap temperatures below 30°C, versus brief clear spells or urban heat island effects that favor 32°C or higher. Model consensus remains fluid two days out, with resolution hinging on official PAGASA maximum temperature readings for the day.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$254Date de fin
23 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 21, 2026, 12:59 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...The market distribution, with 30°C leading at 32% implied probability followed closely by 29–32°C outcomes, reflects trader assessment of the active southwest monsoon (habagat) expected to deliver widespread cloud cover, showers, and thunderstorms over Manila on August 23. PAGASA outlooks indicate daytime maxima near 29–32°C amid 60–80% rain chances, consistent with typical August climatology of 30–31°C highs moderated by high humidity and frequent convective activity. Key variables include monsoon intensity and timing, which can suppress insolation and cap temperatures below 30°C, versus brief clear spells or urban heat island effects that favor 32°C or higher. Model consensus remains fluid two days out, with resolution hinging on official PAGASA maximum temperature readings for the day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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