Global seismic monitoring by the USGS and similar agencies recorded exactly seven earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater during the August 24–30 window, aligning with the market-implied consensus at 100% probability for that outcome. This count reflects typical weekly variability in tectonic activity along major plate boundaries, with events distributed across regions such as the Banda Sea, South Pacific, and Indonesia's Flores area. Historical baselines show 5–10 such quakes per week on average, though short-term clusters can shift totals. Final catalog revisions or late detections of borderline events near the 5.5 threshold represent the only realistic paths to a different resolution, though current verified data leave little room for deviation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de séismes de 5,5 ou plus dans le monde du 24 au 30 août ?
Combien de séismes de 5,5 ou plus dans le monde du 24 au 30 août ?
7 100.0%
≤6 <1%
8 <1%
9 <1%
$39,131 Vol.
$39,131 Vol.
30 août 2026
≤6
Non
7
Oui
8
Non
9
Non
10
Non
11
Non
12
Non
13
Non
plus de 13
Non
7 100.0%
≤6 <1%
8 <1%
9 <1%
$39,131 Vol.
$39,131 Vol.
30 août 2026
≤6
$15,663 Vol.
Non
7
$4,297 Vol.
Oui
8
$3,819 Vol.
Non
9
$3,547 Vol.
Non
10
$2,942 Vol.
Non
11
$1,910 Vol.
Non
12
$2,022 Vol.
Non
13
$1,753 Vol.
Non
plus de 13
$3,179 Vol.
Non
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic monitoring by the USGS and similar agencies recorded exactly seven earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater during the August 24–30 window, aligning with the market-implied consensus at 100% probability for that outcome. This count reflects typical weekly variability in tectonic activity along major plate boundaries, with events distributed across regions such as the Banda Sea, South Pacific, and Indonesia's Flores area. Historical baselines show 5–10 such quakes per week on average, though short-term clusters can shift totals. Final catalog revisions or late detections of borderline events near the 5.5 threshold represent the only realistic paths to a different resolution, though current verified data leave little room for deviation.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Marché ouvert : Aug 21, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
Volume
$39,131Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 21, 2026, 10:48 AM ETSource de résolution
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic monitoring by the USGS and similar agencies recorded exactly seven earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater during the August 24–30 window, aligning with the market-implied consensus at 100% probability for that outcome. This count reflects typical weekly variability in tectonic activity along major plate boundaries, with events distributed across regions such as the Banda Sea, South Pacific, and Indonesia's Flores area. Historical baselines show 5–10 such quakes per week on average, though short-term clusters can shift totals. Final catalog revisions or late detections of borderline events near the 5.5 threshold represent the only realistic paths to a different resolution, though current verified data leave little room for deviation.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$39,131Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 21, 2026, 10:48 AM ETSource de résolution
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Global seismic monitoring by the USGS and similar agencies recorded exactly seven earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater during the August 24–30 window, aligning with the market-implied consensus at 100% probability for that outcome. This count reflects typical weekly variability in tectonic activity along major plate boundaries, with events distributed across regions such as the Banda Sea, South Pacific, and Indonesia's Flores area. Historical baselines show 5–10 such quakes per week on average, though short-term clusters can shift totals. Final catalog revisions or late detections of borderline events near the 5.5 threshold represent the only realistic paths to a different resolution, though current verified data leave little room for deviation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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