Traders currently price ≤6 magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes worldwide for September 21–27 at 42% implied probability, the clear leader, reflecting subdued early-week activity monitored by the USGS. Only isolated events, including a shallow M5.5 near Ruteng, Indonesia, and scattered M5.0–5.2 shocks off the Philippines and in Chile, have registered so far, without aftershock swarms or clustering along major subduction zones. Global background rates from USGS catalogs typically yield 10–20 such events per week, but the absence of recent M6+ triggers or foreshock sequences supports the market’s lean toward the lower tail. Upcoming USGS weekly summaries and any new model runs on tectonic stress accumulation will provide the next key data points for resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de séismes de 5,5 ou plus dans le monde du 21 septembre au 27 septembre ?
Combien de séismes de 5,5 ou plus dans le monde du 21 septembre au 27 septembre ?
≤6 43%
7 14%
8 14%
10 10%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
28 sept. 2026
≤6
43%
7
14%
8
14%
9
6%
10
10%
11
7%
12
7%
13
8%
plus de 13
7%
≤6 43%
7 14%
8 14%
10 10%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
28 sept. 2026
≤6
$1,847 Vol.
43%
7
$73 Vol.
14%
8
$100 Vol.
14%
9
$201 Vol.
6%
10
$250 Vol.
10%
11
$61 Vol.
7%
12
$18 Vol.
7%
13
$28 Vol.
8%
plus de 13
$190 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Traders currently price ≤6 magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes worldwide for September 21–27 at 42% implied probability, the clear leader, reflecting subdued early-week activity monitored by the USGS. Only isolated events, including a shallow M5.5 near Ruteng, Indonesia, and scattered M5.0–5.2 shocks off the Philippines and in Chile, have registered so far, without aftershock swarms or clustering along major subduction zones. Global background rates from USGS catalogs typically yield 10–20 such events per week, but the absence of recent M6+ triggers or foreshock sequences supports the market’s lean toward the lower tail. Upcoming USGS weekly summaries and any new model runs on tectonic stress accumulation will provide the next key data points for resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Marché ouvert : Sep 18, 2026, 11:30 AM ET
Volume
$2,768Date de fin
28 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 18, 2026, 11:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Traders currently price ≤6 magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes worldwide for September 21–27 at 42% implied probability, the clear leader, reflecting subdued early-week activity monitored by the USGS. Only isolated events, including a shallow M5.5 near Ruteng, Indonesia, and scattered M5.0–5.2 shocks off the Philippines and in Chile, have registered so far, without aftershock swarms or clustering along major subduction zones. Global background rates from USGS catalogs typically yield 10–20 such events per week, but the absence of recent M6+ triggers or foreshock sequences supports the market’s lean toward the lower tail. Upcoming USGS weekly summaries and any new model runs on tectonic stress accumulation will provide the next key data points for resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$2,768Date de fin
28 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 18, 2026, 11:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Traders currently price ≤6 magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes worldwide for September 21–27 at 42% implied probability, the clear leader, reflecting subdued early-week activity monitored by the USGS. Only isolated events, including a shallow M5.5 near Ruteng, Indonesia, and scattered M5.0–5.2 shocks off the Philippines and in Chile, have registered so far, without aftershock swarms or clustering along major subduction zones. Global background rates from USGS catalogs typically yield 10–20 such events per week, but the absence of recent M6+ triggers or foreshock sequences supports the market’s lean toward the lower tail. Upcoming USGS weekly summaries and any new model runs on tectonic stress accumulation will provide the next key data points for resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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