**Trader sentiment heavily favors exactly one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake worldwide during September 14–20, with that outcome at 83.5% implied probability.** USGS monitoring through the period recorded only a single qualifying event—a 6.5 quake on September 17 offshore Alaska near Nikolski at roughly 98–111 km depth—while a 6.4 near Kainantu, Papua New Guinea on September 20 fell just below the threshold. No additional events reached 6.5+ by market close, consistent with the absence of major aftershock sequences or new activity along high-strain boundaries such as the Aleutian arc or Papua New Guinea’s plate margin. Global catalogs show typical weekly counts of 1–2 such quakes, with occasional quiet intervals; the current data alignment, including model consensus on seismic rates and real-time USGS reporting, underpins the strong market preference for a single occurrence. Resolution hinges on final official tallies of confirmed magnitudes and locations.