Traders assign a 92.7% implied probability against an Elon bull run parlay due to Tesla's roughly 11% year-to-date decline in 2026 amid Chinese EV competition, elevated capital expenditures on robotaxis and Optimus, and eroding automotive margins. SpaceX's post-IPO slump, driven by heavy AI infrastructure spending despite projected revenue growth from Grok models and Starlink integration, further weighs on sentiment. Recent earnings highlighted execution risks and free-cash-flow pressure without near-term monetization of autonomous or humanoid robot capabilities. A decisive regulatory approval for unsupervised FSD, accelerated Optimus production milestones, or outsized Grok benchmark gains could still reverse the consensus if they deliver verifiable revenue traction before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
1% chance
$11,904 Vol.
$11,904 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
1% chance
$11,904 Vol.
$11,904 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdfTraders assign a 92.7% implied probability against an Elon bull run parlay due to Tesla's roughly 11% year-to-date decline in 2026 amid Chinese EV competition, elevated capital expenditures on robotaxis and Optimus, and eroding automotive margins. SpaceX's post-IPO slump, driven by heavy AI infrastructure spending despite projected revenue growth from Grok models and Starlink integration, further weighs on sentiment. Recent earnings highlighted execution risks and free-cash-flow pressure without near-term monetization of autonomous or humanoid robot capabilities. A decisive regulatory approval for unsupervised FSD, accelerated Optimus production milestones, or outsized Grok benchmark gains could still reverse the consensus if they deliver verifiable revenue traction before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
Marché ouvert : Feb 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$11,904Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdfTraders assign a 92.7% implied probability against an Elon bull run parlay due to Tesla's roughly 11% year-to-date decline in 2026 amid Chinese EV competition, elevated capital expenditures on robotaxis and Optimus, and eroding automotive margins. SpaceX's post-IPO slump, driven by heavy AI infrastructure spending despite projected revenue growth from Grok models and Starlink integration, further weighs on sentiment. Recent earnings highlighted execution risks and free-cash-flow pressure without near-term monetization of autonomous or humanoid robot capabilities. A decisive regulatory approval for unsupervised FSD, accelerated Optimus production milestones, or outsized Grok benchmark gains could still reverse the consensus if they deliver verifiable revenue traction before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
Volume
$11,904Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 92.7% implied probability against an Elon bull run parlay due to Tesla's roughly 11% year-to-date decline in 2026 amid Chinese EV competition, elevated capital expenditures on robotaxis and Optimus, and eroding automotive margins. SpaceX's post-IPO slump, driven by heavy AI infrastructure spending despite projected revenue growth from Grok models and Starlink integration, further weighs on sentiment. Recent earnings highlighted execution risks and free-cash-flow pressure without near-term monetization of autonomous or humanoid robot capabilities. A decisive regulatory approval for unsupervised FSD, accelerated Optimus production milestones, or outsized Grok benchmark gains could still reverse the consensus if they deliver verifiable revenue traction before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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